climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

4. Inundation analysis of
coastal areas
After much debate, the general agreement is
that “vulnerability is neither an outcome nor a
static internal condition but rather a dynamic
property emerging from the structure of human
relations, the internal attributes of specific
populations and places, and the nature of socialenvironmental
interaction” (Encyclopedia of
the Earth). The goal of any model in which
vulnerability is operationalized is to then capture
both the internal and external dimensions of
vulnerability. The benefit of obtaining a better
understanding of vulnerability is that it can
better inform policymakers to the appropriate
response actions. With respect to <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong>, the magnitude of vulnerability can then
be met with adequate adaptation measures.
What follows is a quantitative assessment of
the UAE coastline’s vulnerability to sea level
rise. The initial focus was on the urban built
environment in each of the major cities of the
UAE (i.e., Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Umm al-
Quwain, Ajman, Ras Al Khaimah, and Fujairah).
Where data permits, this was included in the
study. For the non-built environment, the focus
was on the coastline of the Abu Dhabi Emirate
only.
4.1. Introduction
Coastal systems are inherently dynamic and
continually changing in response to natural
processes like tides, and other global oceanatmospheric
interactions like the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El-Nino Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall and
sea-surface temperatures. Human decisions
and development patterns often undermine
coastal ecosystems’ abilities to respond to
these natural phenomena and, when juxtaposed
against the added extreme <strong>change</strong>s expected
from <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, vulnerability is an even
more pressing concern. Vulnerability to sea
level rise causes particular anxiety for coastal
societies like those along the UAE’s Arabian Gulf
shoreline, since the ability of coastal systems to
adapt to rising seas is inherently constrained
by the extensive human infrastructure found
on the coast. At the same time, the human
built environment buffering those ecosystems
face its own challenges from sea level rise. In
the inundation analysis, both ecosystems and
human systems, and the extent to which they
are vulnerable to four different scenarios of sea
level rise are considered. After a discussion of
the methodology is a description of scenarios
used and their results.
4.2. Methodology
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) was
the main tool used in the analysis. GIS is a
software tool that allows for the representation
of data in spatial form, both in two dimensions
and three dimensions. The use of this software
will facilitate the management and integration
of data, the performance of advanced spatial
analysis, modeling and automating certain
processes, and displaying results in high-quality
maps for presentation purposes.
The sections below reflect on previous attempts
to use GIS in conducting a spatial assessment
Figure ‎4-1. Depictions of two main sea level rise modeling strategies.
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Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation