climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

6. Conclusions and
recommendations
Cross-sectoral and ministerial collaboration
and partnerships are essential in addressing the
challenges posed by <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. To more
accurately assess vulnerability, the planning
agencies in the UAE could work with city
planners who have current building footprint,
property value and other important data
sources, agencies with high resolution elevation
datasets, as well as with those responsible for
the census and population studies that can help
spatially reference those populations the most
vulnerable. A complimentary analysis focusing
on the costs or financial losses to infrastructure
may be a logical next step in identifying where,
when, and how much areas will need investment
for adaptation.
To better identify appropriate adaptation
strategies much more detailed data is required
for sufficient mapping, for making financial or
infrastructural decisions, or for model potential
population movements given a ‘worst case
scenario’. It is likewise important to improve
scientific understanding around extreme
events and the probability of cyclones like Gonu
becoming a recurring event. Cyclone and storm
surge modelling were outside the scope of this
study, except to say that if the coastal cities
anticipate a 3m wave surge, the vulnerable
areas are the same regardless of whether it’s
gradually or abruptly inundated. This analysis
is a broad assessment, given available data, that
suggests area for future studies—particularly
those areas who find themselves vulnerable to
only 1m of sea level rise which we may see by
the end of the century. A second consideration
is the complexity of shoreline systems. As a first
cut inundation study we have stayed away from
modelling how the shoreline and ecosystems will
physically respond to rising sea levels, however,
an accurate shore-dynamics model that include
topographic data of even up to 10cm vertical
resolution as well as eco-system specific habitat
migration research would help in this regard.
While we may not be able to pinpoint exactly
when to expect one meter gradual rise in sea
level, we do know that it may be sooner than
most scientists ever thought possible. Much
of the urban landscape may be fundamentally
different by then. In coastal cities, infrastructure
and investment are obviously ongoing. Urban
plans of grand high rises, rapid underground
public transit infrastructure, modernized utility
pipelines, and anything else on the table, that
likely (or hopefully) have a longer lifespan than
the twenty-five to thirty years we may have
before our first critical time marker.
Work on adaptation so far has addressed
the impacts of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, rather than
sufficiently addressing the underlying factors
that cause vulnerability to it. While there is a
significant push all around for adaptation to
be better placed in development planning,
there is a missing step if vulnerability
reduction is not considered central to this.
A successful adaptation process will require
adequately addressing the underlying causes
of vulnerability. A sustainable adaptation
process appears to first require adjustments
in policies, institutions and attitudes that
establish enabling conditions, and second be
accompanied by eventual technological and
infrastructural <strong>change</strong>s.
In thinking towards future sea level rise,
we usually identify 2050 as the first critical
benchmark, after which most quasi-protected,
or at least non-island state, societies should
start to worry. Past conception of invincibility
to coastal events are no longer supported by
science. Southeast Asia, and low lying states like
Bangladesh are already planning for migrating
millions of people to higher ground. The UAE,
at least those Emirates that border the Arabian
Gulf, have seemed somewhat protected from
the ravages of Indian Ocean cyclones. However
it too is a low-lying nation. The majority of
the coastline and coastal ecosystems find
themselves within 0-5 meters elevation above
mean sea level.
Given the intersection of Abu Dhabi’s new and
planned infrastructure with increasing <strong>climate</strong>
risks, the current trajectory could unwittingly be
headed towards disaster if it does not adequately
take into account known <strong>climate</strong> risks into
Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for
Coastal Zones in the United Arab Emirates
57