climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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y 2100. Figure ‎2‐6 captures this observation of sea level <strong>change</strong>, where each study reviewed is represented by a different line in the graph. The shaded area and the vertical red and green error bars represent the 90% confidence interval. The black and red curves denote the deviation from their 1961-1990 average, the shorter green curve the deviation from the average of the black curve for the period 1993 to 2003 (IPCC, 2007). Warmer SST will lead to thermal expansion in the Gulf and <strong>change</strong>s in mean sea level. Sea level data collected from 11 stations in the Arabian Gulf already indicate rising levels. Increased SST could lead to higher peaks of storm surges, increased cyclone intensity, and a greater risk of coastal disasters; warmer waters also undermine temperature-sensitive coastal ecosystem functioning. Thermosteric sea level is high in the summer (June, July, and August) and autumn (September, October, and November) and low during spring (May, April, and March) and winter (December, January, and February). The distribution of the thermosteric sea level shows larger variations in sea level in spring than in winter. “Worst case scenario” adaptation measures will need to target spring mean sea levels due to both larger thermosteric variations layered on top of large spring tidal means (as will be explored in Section ‎2.4). 2.4. Increase in the tidal variation around the mean Tidal dynamics in the Arabian Gulf are admittedly unusual. At most tidal stations, the tidal range maximum occurs in July (summer) and the minimum in February for most stations. In northern and southern mid-latitudes, the lowest sea level in the annual cycle occurs during spring and is highest in the autumn (Hassanzadeh, 1997; Tabata et al., 1998), but over the Arabian Gulf, this feature is different. The vertical extent of the intertidal zone depends mainly on the tidal range, wave action and slope of the shore. On sheltered steeply sloping shores, the height of the intertidal corresponds closely to the tidal range, narrow throughout much of the UAE. Along unprotected coasts, strong wave action causes the intertidal zone to extend upwards above normal high-tide levels. The tide waves entering the Straits of Hormuz generate two large rotary waves for the semidiurnal tide (two highs and two lows each day), and a single large rotary wave for the diurnal tide inside the Gulf. This leads to two distinct tide patterns in the Iranian coast of Arabian Gulf. One is found at eastern boundary (the Strait of Hormuz) and the other at the northern Gulf or western. Seas of up to 5.4m swells in the Eastern Gulf tend to predominate from NW and SE, and swells of 1.8m and higher occur in the Central Gulf. Baseline sea level elevation and subsequent tidal variation around a mean is best determined by the monthly mean sea level (mmsl). In Figure ‎2‐7, we can see how mmsl <strong>change</strong>s: the blue line shown in the figure at left represents the predicted (astronomical) tide. By subtracting the predicted hourly tide from the observed hourly water levels (red line), the researchers obtained the residual <strong>change</strong> in water level (green line). Improved estimates of sea level trends rely on improving tidal gauge data collection the in the Arabian Gulf. Mmsl data is publicly available for only three years for the UAE (PSMSL, 2008). As such data is insufficient for a tidal analysis; this report relies on existing analysis of tidal dynamics found in the literature, as synthesized below, to best understand how tidal variation may shift with <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> induced sea level rise. Figure ‎2‐7. Residual <strong>change</strong> in water level based on observed and predicted water levels. In Safaniya, a coastal town less than two hundred kilometers to the northwest of Ras Tanura, the tide is mixed, though mainly diurnal. Whereas in Ras Tanura, a major oil terminal on the west side of the Arabian Gulf, has a large 22 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Coastal Zones in the United Arab Emirates Figure ‎2‐8. Location of Safaniya and Ras Tanura. spring-neap cycle and a particularly large tide on Julian day 97. This is due to the fact that the tropic-equatorial cycle takes precedence over the spring-neap cycle at places where the tide type is mainly diurnal (Figure 2-8). In the southern Arabian Gulf the tidal range rarely exceeds 2 meters, and in the Gulf of Oman 2.5 meters. Mean trend of increase in sea level for the Arabian Gulf is about 2.34±0.07 mm/ year. The mean spring tidal range is 1.7 and 1.9 meters “An evolutionary model for sabkha development on the north coast of the UAE “; http://www.infomarine.gr/uae/Mubarek/index. html). d; http://www.jstor.org/sicisici=0016-73 98(200003)166%3A1%3C14%3ACCIRAK%3E2.0. CO%3B2-F;. Other resources suggest that the mean range is 1.0m while the spring range is 1.8m. Minimum tidal ranges occur in the Strait of Homuz (Goudie et al., 2000). 2.5. Storms frequency and intensity in relation to rising sea levels Generally, calm or light seas prevail in the Gulf more than 40% of the year. Thus there is limited concern regarding <strong>change</strong>s in storm frequency, intensity, movement in the Arabian Gulf. El- Sabh and Murty (1988) explain that the Arabian Gulf is influenced by extra-tropical weather systems because the Strait of Hormuz lies in the boundary region between the west-to-east traveling extra-tropical cyclones and the eastto-west travelling tropical cyclones. 23
Page 2 and 3: Acknowledgements The authors are de
Page 5 and 6: Foreword There are many levels at w
Page 7 and 8: Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
Page 9: 9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
Page 13 and 14: APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
Page 15 and 16: Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
Page 17 and 18: 2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
Page 19 and 20: differences in observed sea levels
Page 21: Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
Page 25 and 26: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 27 and 28: Gulf is that the shallower depth al
Page 29 and 30: ago when sea level was a few meters
Page 31 and 32: Scientists have every reason to bel
Page 33 and 34: amongst others. Sea level rise may
Page 35 and 36: Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
Page 37 and 38: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 39 and 40: processed SRTM topographic dataset
Page 41 and 42: water height of each tidal day obse
Page 43 and 44: Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
Page 45 and 46: Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
Page 47 and 48: Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
Page 49 and 50: as well as parts of the Industrial
Page 51 and 52: up to help to assess technology nee
Page 53 and 54: framework that has relevance to the
Page 55 and 56: to be estimated reliably and hence
Page 57 and 58: 6. Conclusions and recommendations
Page 59 and 60: 7. List of References ADEA (2006)
Page 61 and 62: Assessment Report of the Intergover
Page 63 and 64: 8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
Page 65 and 66: To calculate areas inundated by lan
Page 67 and 68: Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
Page 69 and 70: Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
Page 71 and 72: Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
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Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
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Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
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in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
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Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
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Total installed capacity equals 648
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Without demand management strategie
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
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The CO 2 storylines include both
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of topography on the region’s pre
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Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
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neglected infrastructure, regional
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and magnitude of the ENSO (Haines e
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Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
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including estimates of population a
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4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
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Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
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4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
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Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
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Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
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5. Results and Discussion The <stro
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total water demand estimate at abou
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for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
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eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
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Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
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CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
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Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
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Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
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Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
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Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission
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139
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List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
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2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
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4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
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Peninsula in the north to close to
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5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
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over a one third of the known speci
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6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
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include the urban development and i
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(Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
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camels and other large herbivores i
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8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
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Alternatively, established shrublan
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e functionally deficient. We projec
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Adaptation can be planned or it can
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is based on a theoretical understan
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species to adapt to a changing <str
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that remediation steps begin soon t
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10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
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Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
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Annex 2: Expected effects of global
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Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Name of species/sub-species Habitat
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Annex 8: Native species list of ter
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The cover picture represents a Brid
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