climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

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Annex 2: Climate projections GCM outputs for 2050 and 2100 The <strong>climate</strong> projections used in the Water Sector Report were based on a Climate Change Projections study that SEI prepared for the Climate Change Executive Committee of the UAE in April 2006. For that study, the authors used the <strong>climate</strong> projection tools MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change) and SCENGEN (A Regional Climate SCENario GENerator) to establish the regional <strong>climate</strong> baseline (1960- 1991) and project future regional temperature and rainfall. MAGICC and SCENGEN are coupled, interactive software tools that can be used to examine future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and its uncertainties at both the global-mean and regional-mean levels. The report provided a summary of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> projections for selected urban areas of the UAE. The focus was on four <strong>climate</strong> indicators, as follows: average temperature and precipitation over the 1961-1990 period (annual and monthly) average temperature and precipitation for the year 1990 (annual and monthly) average temperature and precipitation under <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> conditions (annual and monthly values for the years 2050 and 2100) average <strong>change</strong> in temperature and precipitation under <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> conditions relative to the 1961-90 baseline (annual and monthly values for the years 2050 and 2100) There are a total of 36 IPCC emission Scenarios included in MAGICC/SCENGEN See Table A2-1. These IPCC emission scenarios are grouped into four major categories, each with its own “storyline” of how global development paths could unfold and each with their resulting annual emission levels (IPCC, 2000). A brief overview of each Scenario storyline is as follows: A1 storyline: corresponds to a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological <strong>change</strong> in the energy system. When considering nonfossil intensive scenario subgroups, future carbon emissions are among the midrange of the four storylines. A2 storyline: corresponds to a very heterogeneous world with a strong underlying theme of self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in a continuously increasing global population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological <strong>change</strong> are more fragmented and not as fast-paced as in the other storylines. Future carbon emissions under this scenario are among the highest of the four storylines. B1 storyline: this corresponds to a convergent world in which global population peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid <strong>change</strong>s in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of a widespread clean and resource-efficient technologies that lead to a reduction in energy and material use. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional <strong>climate</strong> initiatives. Future carbon emissions under this scenario are among the lowest of the four storylines. B2 storyline: corresponds to a world in 134 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Table A2-1. Summary of 36 emission scenario and 17 GCM options. IPCC Emission Scenario A1 A2 B1 B2 GCM A1ASF A2-ASF BA-IMA B2-MES BMRC98 A1B-AIM A2A1MI B1AIM B2AIM CCC199 A1B- NEW A2AIM B1ASF B2ASF CCSR96 A1CAI ASGIM B1HIME B2HIMI CERF98 A1CME A2MES B1HIMI B2IMA CSI296 A1CMI A2MIN B1MES B2MIN CSM_98 A1FI-MI B1MIN ECH395 A1GAI B1TME ECH498 A1GME A1IMA A1MES A1MIN A1T-MES A1TAI A1V1MI which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological <strong>change</strong> than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels. Future carbon emissions under this scenario are among the midrange of the four storylines. Additionally, there are a total of 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs) included in MAGICC/SCENGEN. Each GCM represents the main components of the <strong>climate</strong> system in three dimensions as simulated in computer modeling experiments, yet are differentiated by a range of underlying assumptions they use. The models are named relative to the institution where the experiments have been conducted (e.g., GFDL90 GISS95 HAD295 HAD300 IAP_97 IMD_98 MRI_96 HAD295 and HAD300 are GCMs developed at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, which is part of the Meteorological Office of the United Kingdom). Each Scenario-GCM combination provides a different estimate of projected temperature and rainfall due to the fact that underlying assumptions are different. A driving concern in using MAGICC/SCENGEN results was to be able to adequately represent a plausible range for the UAE regarding future temperature and rainfall levels. For this reason, it was important that the analysis consider a sufficient number of Scenario-GCM combinations that could provide a robust and defensible indication of future climatic conditions. For this analysis, one Scenario from each of the four storylines was considered, and were each analyzed by the five different GCMs, as summarized in Table A2-2. Hence, the resulting scenario-GCM combinations come to a total of twenty. The Scenario-GCM combinations can also be represented spatially using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software. Below we include four maps depicting average <strong>change</strong> in temperature (AT) and precipitation (AP) across the country based on A1B-AIM-HAD295 Scenario-GCM outputs see Figures A2-1 to A2-4. The results in the Tables A2-3 and A2-4 provide the maximum and minimum projected <strong>change</strong> in temperature & precipitation for Abu Dhabi city in 2050 and 2100 that our model was based upon. The projected maximum/minimum <strong>change</strong>s are for reported for the 4 scenarios (A1, A2, B1, and B2). For each of the 4 scenarios Table A2-2. Emission scenarios and GCMs used for the UAE. IPCC Emission Scenario A1 A2 B1 B2 GCM A1B-AIM A2-AIM B1AIM B2AIM CCC199 CSI296 ECH498 Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation for Water Resources in Abu Dhabi A1V2MI PCM_00 WM_95 GFDL90 HAD295 135
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Acknowledgements The authors are de
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Foreword There are many levels at w
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Table of Contents (Part 2) Water Re
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9.2. Types of ecosystem models ....
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APF AML CARA CO 2 CReSIS CSI DEM EG
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Table ‎1‐1. Climate Change and
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2. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Coasta
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differences in observed sea levels
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Sea Level Change (mm) 20 15 10 5 0
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Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
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Gulf is that the shallower depth al
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ago when sea level was a few meters
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Scientists have every reason to bel
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amongst others. Sea level rise may
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Figure ‎4‐2. Data displaying ar
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processed SRTM topographic dataset
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water height of each tidal day obse
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Table ‎4‐3. UAE Coastal Cities.
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Figure ‎4-10: 1 meters above mean
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Figure ‎4-12: 3 meters above mean
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as well as parts of the Industrial
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up to help to assess technology nee
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framework that has relevance to the
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to be estimated reliably and hence
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6. Conclusions and recommendations
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7. List of References ADEA (2006)
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Assessment Report of the Intergover
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8. Glossary Adaptation: Adjustment
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To calculate areas inundated by lan
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Annex 1: Elevation Data Sensitivity
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Annex 2: Inundation maps 3. Urban V
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Figure A2-3 3 meters sea level rise
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Figure A2-6 1,3,9 meters sea level
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Page Figure 4‐6. WEAP estimates o
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in storage occurs in the Liwa lens
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Figure‎ 2‐1. Percentage of tota
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Page 85 and 86: Without demand management strategie
Page 87 and 88: Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Page 89 and 90: Figure 3-1 Global average temperatu
Page 91 and 92: The CO 2 storylines include both
Page 93 and 94: of topography on the region’s pre
Page 97 and 98: Temperature Change (degrees C) Temp
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Page 103 and 104: Table ‎4‐1. Irrigated Hectares
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Page 107 and 108: 4.4. Representing Irrigation Demand
Page 109 and 110: Table 4-5. Comparison of Historical
Page 111 and 112: 4.6. Scenarios and Key Assumptions
Page 113 and 114: Avg. Monthly Air Temperature - MOR
Page 115 and 116: Table ‎4‐8. Summary of scenario
Page 117 and 118: 5. Results and Discussion The <stro
Page 119 and 120: total water demand estimate at abou
Page 121 and 122: for the Optimistic and Pessimistic
Page 123 and 124: eport of the IPCC holds out hope th
Page 125 and 126: Table 6-1. Adaptation options for w
Page 127 and 128: CIA, (1990), Middle East Area Oil a
Page 129 and 130: Figure A1‐2. Map of Abu Dhabi key
Page 131 and 132: Data Sources And Assumptions We rel
Page 133: Table A1-3. continued Liwa- Hammim
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Page 143 and 144: List of Tables Page Table 3-1: Majo
Page 145 and 146: 2. Potential risks to dryland ecosy
Page 147 and 148: 4. Major terrestrial ecosystems in
Page 149 and 150: Peninsula in the north to close to
Page 151 and 152: 5. Important flora in Abu Dhabi Abu
Page 153 and 154: over a one third of the known speci
Page 155 and 156: 6. Fauna of the terrestrial ecosyst
Page 157 and 158: include the urban development and i
Page 159 and 160: (Arnell, 1999; Milly et al., 2005).
Page 161 and 162: camels and other large herbivores i
Page 163 and 164: 8. Biodiversity, ecosystem threshol
Page 169 and 170: Alternatively, established shrublan
Page 171 and 172: e functionally deficient. We projec
Page 173 and 174: Adaptation can be planned or it can
Page 177 and 178: is based on a theoretical understan
Page 179 and 180: species to adapt to a changing <str
Page 181 and 182: that remediation steps begin soon t
Page 183 and 184: 10 References Adler, PB, DA Raff, W
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Nordad, (2007), Climate Change Fact
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Annex 2: Expected effects of global
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Annex 4: Main drivers of ecosystem
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Sn Species Scientific name Family S
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Name of species/sub-species Habitat
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Annex 8: Native species list of ter
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The cover picture represents a Brid
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