climate change on UAE - Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center

towards a potential problem that would justify
taking action, the next stage is to decide which
action could best be taken and where and
when this could best be done. The answers
to these questions depend on the prevailing
criteria that guide local, national or regional
policy preparation, as well as on existing
development and management plans that
form the broader context for any adaptation
initiative. Important policy criteria that could
influence adaptation decisions include costeffectiveness,
environmental sustainability,
cultural compatibility and social acceptability
in Abu Dhabi. In addition, individual emirates
should choose to take a precautionary approach
as postponing action involves substantial
risks, even though uncertainty may still be
considerable.
Coastal planners in Abu Dhabi will always face a
certain degree of uncertainty, not only because
the future is by definition uncertain, but also
because knowledge of natural and socioeconomic
processes is and always will remain
incomplete. This uncertainty requires planners
to assess the environmental and societal risks
of <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> with and without adaptation.
The information thus obtained can help to
determine the optimal adaptation strategy and
timing of implementation. There are a number
of decision tools available to assist in this
process. Examples of these tools include costbenefit
analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis,
risk-effectiveness analysis and multicriteria
analysis. The last technique is particularly
relevant when great significance is attached
to values that cannot be easily expressed in
monetary terms.
GIS can assist planners in identifying
appropriate technologies for adaptation, as well
as the optimal locations for their application,
depending on the criteria of the decision
maker. One simple, first-order application of
GIS in coastal adaptation would be overlaying
scenarios of sea-level rise with elevation and
coastal development data to define impact
zones, as has been demonstrated in this study
through the analysis of sea level rise scenarios.
More sophisticated applications may include
the modelling of morphodynamic and ecological
responses to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. In addition, GIS
allows for the non-invasive, reversible and
refinable testing of specific technologies for
adaptation before these are implemented in
the real world. After implementation, newly
acquired data can be analysed to evaluate
technology performance. Once created, a
GIS database will have further utility in other
aspects of management and policy.
The modelling of potential futures based on
plausible scenarios is pertinent for the planning
and design of Abu Dhabi development that
accounts for adaptation, when relevant impacts
are quantified, alternative adaptation options
are evaluated and one course of action is
selected. Climate impact assessment requires
models of relevant <strong>change</strong>s in morphological,
ecological and human factors, as well as their
interaction over appropriate time scales (i.e.
a decade or longer). The necessary modelling
capabilities are increasing rapidly and current
developments in information technology are
facilitating the transfer and application of
these tools as they are developed. However, the
limitations inherent in all models (i.e. they are
representations of a part of reality for a specific
purpose) must not be overlooked. Human
expertise and interpretation remain essential
for the intelligent use of any model.
The quality and effectiveness of future planning
and design process in Abu Dhabi to account for
sea level rise will be influenced by the context
in which decisions are made. The successful
implementation of many coastal policies,
including adaptation to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, will
likely be increasingly dependent on public
acceptance at the community level, especially
if large scale retreat from ocean proximity is
involved. In addition to informing the public
so as to raise their awareness of the issues at
stake, it may also be important to involve them
throughout the planning process. Gaining
public acceptance is an important prerequisite
for identifying and transferring appropriate
technologies for adaptation. Further, local
expertise will be required for successful
technology implementation, application,
maintenance and enforcement.
In response to difficulties encountered in
planning and designing adaptation strategies,
a number of frameworks have been developed
to assist in these activities. One recent decision
52
Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation