Statistics Book 2007.pdf - Kerala Tourism

Projected Annual Demand vs. Supply for Trained Manpower:
The supply of trained manpower in Kerala is based on the statistic that only 65% of the students obtaining
formal training are joining the hotels and restaurants. There is a shortage of trained manpower in the
Hotels and Restaurants
11.1.45. Tourist Traffic Projection
Tourist projections for foreign and domestic tourists have been carried out adopting growth rates as
envisaged for domestic tourists (7%) and foreign tourists (9%) in the Kerala’s Tourism Vision-2025 and
moderated growth rates of 3.5% and 6% based on tourists arrival trends for the last 15 years. Base year
tourists arrival for the year 2005 has been adopted for projecting the tourists arrivals.
Period
Kerala
Domestic Foreign Total
1995-2006 6.0 19.9 6.0
2000-06 3.6 14.8 3.5
Tourist Projections for Kerala have been carried out with the moderated growth rates based on the
tourists growth during the period. Table below presents the projected tourists for the Kerala State.
GROWTH RATES
Domestic Foreign tourists TOTAL
3.5% 7%* 6% 9%* Assumed Kerala tourism-2025
2005 59.5 59.46 4.3 4.3 63.74 63.74
2010 72.0 82.2 5.4 6.0 77.4 88.2
2015 85.5 115.3 7.2 9.3 92.7 124.6
2020 101.5 161.7 9.7 14.3 111.2 176.0
Growth 71% 172% 126% 233% 74% 176%
* Kerala Tourism Vision-2025
According to assumed moderated growth rates, domestic traffic will increase by 71% and foreign tourists
by 126% during the 15 years period. Estimated tourists, as growth rates envisaged by the Tourism Vision
2025, growth of domestic tourists by 172% and foreign tourists by 233 percent seems to be too ambitious
and may not materialize. It is hoped that the growth of tourists with the moderated growth rates may be
achieved as it is based on the past trends, and if the development of tourism infrastructure continue to
develop at the pace already set in, the targets may be achievable.
We suggest a more conservative rate of growth in tourism in the long term for the following reasons:
1. Balancing tourism with corresponding development of necessary infrastructure, due to various
demands on limited capital resources.
2. Premature aggressive marketing of a tourism product whose basic transport, accommodation,
utility, health and security infrastructure are inadequate, and whose hospitality human resources
are limited; can irrevocably damage a destination’s image.
3. Allowing residents time to gradually adjust to tourism and participate in its planning and socioeconomic
benefits.
4. Avoiding imbalance in economic development and over-dependence on tourism.
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