Import risk analysis: Llamas (Lama glama) and alpacas (Vicugna ...

1993). According to Fowler (1992), Lubroth demonstrated that the virus could be
transmitted from cattle to llamas and vice versa, but could not be isolated from llamas 14
days after infection.
Inactivated virus vaccines are available. However, vaccination may mask clinical
infections while animals may still be carrying virus. In addition, the efficacy of vaccination
in camelids is not known. The OIE recognises freedom where vaccination is practised, but
countries must cease vaccination for at least 12 months and not have introduced vaccinated
animals before qualifying for inclusion in the list of FMD free countries where vaccination
is not practised (OIE 2009).
14.1.5. Hazard identification conclusion
Foot and mouth disease is a debilitating highly contagious disease and the virus is an
exotic, notifiable organism. Camelids can be infectious for short periods. Therefore, the
virus is considered to be a potential hazard in the commodity.
14.2. RISK ASSESSMENT
14.2.1. Entry assessment
Animals from infected countries (some South American countries) and those that can not
comply with the definition for country freedom without vaccination in the Code could be
carrying the organism and could be infectious at the time of importation. The likelihood of
entry in the commodity is therefore assessed to be non-negligible.
14.2.2. Exposure assessment
Infected animals are contagious and excrete virus in all body discharges and in aerosols.
They could infect animals they are in contact with, or via contaminated fomites. Long
distance transmission by aerosols is probably unlikely in the case of camelids. However, if
camelids were to infect pigs, the pigs could spread the virus over long distances by
aerosols (Gloster et al 1982). Therefore, the likelihood of exposure is assessed to be nonnegligible.
14.2.3. Consequence assessment
Animals that become infected could become the focal point for a serious outbreak of foot
and mouth disease. Such an outbreak would cause serious disruption to the livestock
industries, economic losses to individual farmers, very large expenses for an eradication
campaign, and severe disruption to export markets for both animals and animal products.
The overall effects could be catastrophic as demonstrated dramatically by the losses that
resulted from an outbreak of the disease in Britain where the costs to government were
estimated at 3.1 billion pounds (Thompson et al 2002). A scenario analysis of the likely
macroeconomic impacts of a limited FMD outbreak in New Zealand estimates that the
cumulative loss in nominal gross domestic product to be around $6 billion after 1 year, and
around $10 billion after 2 years. Further, it is considered likely that there would be a large
initial drop in the dollar (around 20 %) with the exchange rate expected to remain below
the baseline for at least 2 years (The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Treasury
2003).
MAF Biosecurity New Zealand Import risk analysis: Llamas and alpacas from specified countries ● 47