Chapter 6. The South Asian Standoff141have speculated.” (P. Musharraf, In the Line of Fire. A Memoir [L<strong>on</strong>d<strong>on</strong>:2006], P. 286).32 Ibid., P. 285.33 For details of Pakistan’s nuclear materials and technology smuggling abroad,see: V.E. Novikov, “<str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Technology Leaks out of Pakistan – C<strong>on</strong>firmati<strong>on</strong>of Crisis in the Internati<strong>on</strong>al <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Weap<strong>on</strong>s N<strong>on</strong>proliferati<strong>on</strong> Regime,”<str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> C<strong>on</strong>trol 10, no. 2(72) (2004): PP. 95-103; <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Black Markets:Pakistan, A.Q. Khan and the Rise of Proliferati<strong>on</strong> Networks. A Net Assessment,ed. M. Fitzpatrick (L<strong>on</strong>d<strong>on</strong>: 2007).34 Statement by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Dawn, Sept. 5, 1999.35 D. Albright, “India’s and Pakistan’s Fissile Material and <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Weap<strong>on</strong>sInventories, End of 1999” (Washingt<strong>on</strong>: 1999) PP. 1-2; Cirinci<strong>on</strong>e et al.,Deadly Arsenals, P. 207.36 A.A. Pikayev, “N<strong>on</strong>strategic <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Weap<strong>on</strong>s,” in <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Proliferati<strong>on</strong>:New Technology, Weap<strong>on</strong>s and Treaties, ed. A.G. Arbatov and V.Z.Dvorkin (Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center, 2009), P.133; The News,Oct. 2, 2001.37 T. Iqbal, “Pakistan Tests Upgraded Shaheen II,” Pakistan Defence, Feb.22, 2007.38 For more details about the nuclear cooperati<strong>on</strong> of North Korea and Iran, see:V.V. Yevseyev and V.I. Sazhin, “The <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Missile Shields of Two ‘RogueStates.’ The DPRK and Iran Unite Their Resources to Create an AdvancedMissile Potential,” Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, Feb. 13, 2009.39 “AQ Khan Network Still Alive: US Think Tank,” Times of India, Sept. 8,2006.40 <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Black Markets, PP. 43-64.41 Although he is often cited as being the main problem. For reference, seethe statements of P. Musharraf and George Tenet, the former directorof the CIA: “It was becoming clear that AQ was not ‘part of the problem’but ‘the problem’ itself.” (Musharraf, In the Line of Fire, P. 288); Khanis “at least as dangerous as Osama bin Laden.” (“AQ Khan Network StillAlive,” Times of India, Sept. 8, 2006).42 On the whole, there were 1,080 official cases of illegal fissile materialstorage or transport from 1993 through 2006. In 67 percent of the cases,the material that was stolen or unaccounted for was never seen again(IAEA Illicit Trafficking Database [ITDB] [Vienna: Internati<strong>on</strong>al AtomicEnergy Agency, 2006]. PP. 3-5).43 Dawn, Sept. 15, 2004.44 Z. Ali, Pakistan’s <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Assets and Threats of Terrorism: How Grave isthe Danger? (Washingt<strong>on</strong>: 2007), PP. 8-9.
142<str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Reset</str<strong>on</strong>g>: Arms Reducti<strong>on</strong> and N<strong>on</strong>proliferati<strong>on</strong>45 One completely unlikely scenario predicts that radical forces will evendissolve the army after coming to power.46 <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Black Markets, P. 116.47 Cheema, Indian <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Deterrence, P. 436.48 A. Rajain, <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Deterrence in Southern Asia: China, India and Pakistan(New Delhi: SAGE Publicati<strong>on</strong>s, 2005), P. 229.49 Salik, The Genesis of South Asian <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Deterrence, P. 230.50 See reports of the South Asian <strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Stability</strong> Institute, L<strong>on</strong>d<strong>on</strong>:U. Choudhury, “The Indo-USA <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Deal and Its Impact <strong>on</strong> India’sBallistic Missile <str<strong>on</strong>g>Program</str<strong>on</strong>g>me” (Research Report 17, June 2008); N. Mirzaand M. Sadiq, “Indo-US 123 Agreement: Impacts <strong>on</strong> Deterrence <strong>Stability</strong>in South Asia” (Research Report 7, Jan. 2008).51 Ganguly and Kapur, India, Pakistan, and the Bomb, P. 85.52 G. Chufrin, V. Belokrenitsky, V. Moskalenko, and T. Shaumyan, “SouthAsia,” in <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> Weap<strong>on</strong>s After the Cold War, ed. A. Arbatov andV. Dvorkin (Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center, 2008), P. 336.53 “The Lahore Declarati<strong>on</strong>,” in D. Kux, India-Pakistan Negotiati<strong>on</strong>s: Is PastStill Prologue? (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2007), PP. 81-82.
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About the Carnegie EndowmentThe Car
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