Nuclear Reset - Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE)

Chapter 20. <strong>Nuclear</strong> Testing395and technology and a high level of expertise among scientists,developers, and workers in these nuclear centers.• Preserve a basic level of capability that would permitresumption of nuclear testing in the event that circumstancesfree the Russian Federation from constraint underthe Treaty.• Continue efforts aimed at improving the ability to monitorthe nuclear test ban.• Further improve analytical and informational capabilities,including intelligence, to provide reliable and timely informationon nuclear arsenals, potential clandestine nuclearweapons development programs, or similar activities havingsignificance for nuclear weapons development in othercountries.If, however, problems relating to the safe and reliable performanceof the types of nuclear warheads that would be key to Russia’s nationalsecurity concerns could not be addressed without nucleartesting, then under the terms of the Treaty Russia reserved the rightto withdraw from the Treaty for the purpose of protecting the supremeinterests of the state.The Long Road to Entry Into ForceThe speed with which countries signed the CTBT over the firstmonths following its approval by the UN General Assembly createdthe impression that its actual entry into force was at hand. Amongthe first to sign the Treaty were the five nuclear powers. By January1997, over 140 countries had signed the CTBT, and although India(and then Pakistan) had withdrawn support for the Treaty duringthe final stage of negotiations at the Conference on Disarmament, 4 itwas nonetheless assumed that with such broad international supportfor the CTBT, they would be forced to change their position andsign on to it.Subsequent events did not evolve according to this optimisticscenario. Neither India nor Pakistan hurried to change its positionand sign the CTBT. Moreover, in May 1998, first India andthen immediately thereafter Pakistan carried out a series of nucleartests, thus expanding the “nuclear club.” North Korea, the nuclearweapons ambitions of which had been “exposed to the light” as