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Nuclear Reset - Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE)

Nuclear Reset - Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE)

Nuclear Reset - Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE)

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512<str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Reset</str<strong>on</strong>g>: Arms Reducti<strong>on</strong> and N<strong>on</strong>proliferati<strong>on</strong>mament, was used to full measure during the preparati<strong>on</strong> of the NewSTART, and will remain relevant in the future.The prol<strong>on</strong>ged break in strategic dialogue between Russia andthe United States ended with the negotiati<strong>on</strong> and signature of the New<strong>Strategic</strong> Arms Reducti<strong>on</strong> Treaty between the two nuclear superpowersin Prague in April 2010. The New START limits mainlythe numbers of warheads deployed <strong>on</strong> delivery vehicles, the numbersof deployed delivery vehicles, and the total number of deployed andn<strong>on</strong>-deployed ICBM and SLBM launchers and heavy bombers. Thereare no restricti<strong>on</strong>s <strong>on</strong> the structure or makeup of the nuclear triad,while the rules for counting strategic weap<strong>on</strong>s, inspecti<strong>on</strong> systems,and notificati<strong>on</strong>s have been simplified.Compared to the actual levels of SNFs, the limits set <strong>on</strong> warheadsunder the New START primarily reflect changes to the procedure forcounting warheads <strong>on</strong> strategic delivery vehicles, thereby “legalizing”the existing and forecast numbers of strategic weap<strong>on</strong>s. Nevertheless,this number of nuclear warheads is <strong>on</strong>ly a fifth of the number at the endof the Cold War, and a third of the limits under START I.To resolve existing c<strong>on</strong>tradicti<strong>on</strong>s over BMD and other mattersover coming decades appears no less important than to c<strong>on</strong>tinue reducti<strong>on</strong>sof the SNFs. The Obama administrati<strong>on</strong>’s decisi<strong>on</strong> in 2009to cancel the deployment of the strategic BMD system in the CzechRepublic and Poland has opened the door to compromise.However, the approach to cooperati<strong>on</strong> in the BMD area to whichthe leaders of Russia and the United States both have agreed has notbeen pursued actively enough, and has thus far amounted to littlemore than joint assessment of probable missile threats. At the sametime, however, there is a significant potential for real cooperati<strong>on</strong> betweenthe two powers, above all in the sphere of informati<strong>on</strong> systemintegrati<strong>on</strong>. The proposed Joint Center for the Exchange of Datafrom Early Warning Systems and Notificati<strong>on</strong>s of Missile Launches(creati<strong>on</strong> of which was approved 12 years ago) should be reactivatedwithout delay, and the theater missile defense computer trainingexercises with the participati<strong>on</strong> of Russia, the United States, andNATO should be resumed and eventually expanded to military testranges and bey<strong>on</strong>d the theater of operati<strong>on</strong>s format. It would then bepossible to begin the joint development and deployment of a theatermissile defense system, followed by a global strategic missile defensesystem that would encompass the allies of the two powers, China,and other resp<strong>on</strong>sible states.

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