Nuclear Reset - Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE)

C h a p t e r 2The Modern Arsenals of<strong>Nuclear</strong> StatesAlexei ArbatovThe reliability and accuracy of the vast mass of published informationon national nuclear arsenals has been inconsistent at best,applying both to the past and the present and presenting both subjectiveand objective explanations. The former include the varyingdegrees of openness of official data on current and future nuclearforces and the differing levels of freedom to discuss these subjects.A further complication has been the difficulty by which expert communitiesin various countries assess and classify different categoriesand systems of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles. More objectivereasons for the insufficient accuracy of data include the varietyof weapon counting methods and the constantly changing statusof the actual nuclear systems (which can be on alert, deployed, undergoingrepairs, being stored at military bases or in central storage,still in production at the manufacturing plant or going throughthe shipping process).The Reliability of <strong>Nuclear</strong> Weapons DatabasesThe United States and Russia currently provide the greatest degreeof openness as far as information about their arsenals and correspondingnuclear development programs is concerned, including both officialdata and the large volume of information from the two powers’expert communities. This is primarily due to the decades of negotiationsthat Moscow and Washington have held on the SALT,START, and SORT treaties. By seeking to enhance the transparencyand predictability of the two powers’ strategic relations, theseagreements foresaw an expanding exchange of information aboutthe strategic forces of the two sides and their corresponding controlregimes.