Nuclear Reset - Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE)

Chapter 3. <strong>Nuclear</strong> Energy Prospects79energy (to as much as 37 percent of electric power production by2030) and nuclear energy (to 18 percent), and the developmentand use of energy saving and environmentally friendly technologies(especially carbon dioxide capture and burial). 11 The IEAestimates that implementation of this scenario would require asmuch as 10.5 trillion dollars of investment in various economicsectors. 12The International Atomic Energy Agency has also suggestedtwo development scenarios for the nuclear energy sector. Underthe first, the share of nuclear energy in the overall energy balancewould decline from 14 percent in 2010 to 13 percent in 2030. Underthe second, the share of nuclear energy would rise to 16 percent.Under both scenarios, the amount of electricity produced by nuclearpower plants (NPPs) is predicted to increase (by 27 percent and 53percent, respectively). 13From <strong>Nuclear</strong> Renaissance to FukushimaThe notion of a “nuclear renaissance” became popular at the turnof the present century, reflecting the increasing interest in nuclearenergy in response to the factors outlined above. 14 The UnitedStates began to reconsider nuclear energy after a hiatus of almost 30years during which not a single reactor had been built. It is currentlybuilding one power reactor (1.7 percent of the total number of suchreactors in the world), has nine more planned (6 percent), and hasproposed designs for 22 (6.4 percent).Currently (mid-2012), there are 435 power reactors in operationaround the world, 61 are under construction, another 162 have beenplanned, and project plans have been proposed for another 329 total.15 Once the reactors already under construction and those plannedto be built have been commissioned, nuclear power plant capacitycould increase by a total of 35 percent over the next decade (from370 GW in 2010 to 500 GW in 2020). 16However, the question of whether there will be any substantial increasein nuclear energy’s share in the global energy balance remainsan open one. Hans-Holger Rogner, head of the IAEA’s planningand economic studies section, does not anticipate any substantialincrease. In his opinion, the share of nuclear energy can be expectedto decrease by 2030, due in particular to the amount of time it takes