Nuclear Reset - Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE)

32<strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Reset</strong>: Arms Reduction and NonproliferationAgreement, which was followed by the signature of the New STARTTreaty at the end of 2010.Factors Affecting Strategic StabilityUntil the present time, given the state of continued mutual nucleardeterrence between the United States and Russia, strategic stabilityhas been affected by the combined impact of a variety of political,operative, strategic, military, economic, and technical factors:• the survivability of strategic nuclear forces;• ballistic missile defense systems;• nuclear weapons belonging to third parties;• conventionally-armed precision-guided weapons;• space weapons;• anti-submarine warfare.The survivability of strategic nuclear forces. As noted above,strategic stability is affected first and foremost by the structureof a nation’s nuclear triad and the parameters of the weaponsin these groups.Until the mid-1980s, the backbone of the Soviet Union’s potentialin the nuclear balance had been MIRV-ed missile systems in siloshardened to ensure a fairly strong second strike capability. Atthe same time, the United States had perceived these as destabilizingsystems that in its view combined a strong counterstrike capabilitywith reduced survivability. Since these intercontinental ballistic missiles(ICBMs) were fitted with multiple reentry vehicles (RVs), justone or two weapons would be sufficient to destroy up to 10 opposingwarheads. The danger of losing so many missiles in one attack couldprompt nations to deliver a launch-on-warning or even preemptivestrike that would threaten to dramatically escalate the situation.Fixed-site ICBMs with single warheads were regarded as considerablyless destabilizing arms systems. Being vulnerable, these systemscould have still been used to deliver a launch-on-warning attack.However, they themselves were relatively low-value targets in anypotential disarming strike.In the meantime, mobile ICBMs and submarines with sealaunchedballistic missiles (SLBMs) were traditionally recognizedas the most stabilizing weapons systems since they were to providethe main punch of an effective retaliatory strike, making them cen-