Nuclear Reset - Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE)

ConclusionAlexei ArbatovThe collective study presented above addresses the multifaceted andextremely complex problem of nuclear weapons in the world todayand for the foreseeable future. After a period of stagnation and decaythat lasted over ten years, in 2009 and 2010 positive changesbegan to occur in this sphere of global politics. In order to buildupon the success that has been achieved thus far, the governmentsof leading nations, the world expert community, and the nucleardisarmament movements will need to work step by step to overcomethe enormous political, military, strategic, technical, and economicdifficulties ahead.The research conducted in preparing the book has permitteda number of new conclusions to be drawn and practical proposalsto be formulated on the subject:One. One great paradox of our time lies in the fact that nucleardeterrence remains effective against the least probable and mostfarfetched of threats, including mutual attacks by the great powersor their alliances using nuclear weapons or their main generalpurpose forces. However, nuclear deterrence is futile against new,quite realistic threats: the spread of nuclear weapons, internationalterrorism, ethnic and religious conflicts, increasing drug trafficking,trans-border crime and piracy, illegal immigration, etc.<strong>Nuclear</strong> deterrence must be deeply transformed as a basis for relationsbetween the great powers, primarily Russia and the UnitedStates, in order to remove the serious barriers that impede cooperationon a more effective level in combating the new security threatsof the 21 st century.The most favorable conditions for strategic stability would be establishedthrough integration of missile early warning systems bythe two sides, followed later by joint development and deploymentof BMD systems in Russia, the United States, their allied countries,