Nuclear Reset - Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE)

Chapter 16<strong>Nuclear</strong> Fuel CycleAnatoly DyakovIt is now quite clearly understood that the greatest risk to the nuclearnonproliferation regime is the proliferation of the methods usedto produce fissile nuclear materials. As the example of North Koreahas demonstrated convincingly, a country that has access to the technologiesof uranium enrichment and/or spent nuclear fuel reprocessingcould potentially develop a nuclear weapon quickly, even whilebeing a party to the <strong>Nuclear</strong> Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) andhaving its facilities under IAEA safeguard. Speaking figuratively, formerIAEA director general M. ElBaradei has called the nuclear fuelcycle the “Achilles’ heel” of the nonproliferation regime. 1The very presence of a breach in the nonproliferation regime as seriousas the development of the NFC [nuclear fuel cycle], which someconsider to be a loophole in the nonproliferation regime, naturallyprompts questions about both the extent to which the NPT is meetingthe goals of nonproliferation and its ability to adequately protectinternational security from new threats that may arise. Under currentconditions, when the main threat is seen as being related to nuclearterrorism or to efforts by certain countries to acquire nuclear weapons,a top-to-bottom review and fundamental adaptation of NPTmechanisms and regimes will be required, as well as a detailizationof the implications behind some of its requirements (particularlythose concerning the scope of IAEA safeguards, the framework forpeaceful nuclear cooperation under Articles III and IV, the proceduresfor withdrawing from the Treaty under Article X, the exportcontrol regime, and other measures). In this context, the nuclear fuelcycle will remain one of the more challenging issues.Concerns about the sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices andshortages of fossil fuel reserves have led many countries in the world,including developing countries, to turn to nuclear power in orderto satisfy their energy needs. Preservation of the international nucle-