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Nuclear Reset - Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE)

Nuclear Reset - Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE)

Nuclear Reset - Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE)

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90<str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Reset</str<strong>on</strong>g>: Arms Reducti<strong>on</strong> and N<strong>on</strong>proliferati<strong>on</strong>industry, a report by the U.S. C<strong>on</strong>gressi<strong>on</strong>al Office of TechnologyAssessment 15 expressed the c<strong>on</strong>cern that the leadership in Iran mightalso be seeking to hire foreign bomb designers <strong>on</strong> a mercenary basis,particularly in light of the multimilli<strong>on</strong>-dollar profits that the countrywas earning from the export of oil. At the same time, the report citeda lack of available informati<strong>on</strong> c<strong>on</strong>cerning the Shah’s true intenti<strong>on</strong>sor plans in the nuclear sector. 16It is possible that the latter estimate had been based up<strong>on</strong> informati<strong>on</strong><strong>on</strong> Iranian-Israeli cooperati<strong>on</strong> in nuclear and missile technology.One of these joint projects, “Tzur” (“Flower”), launched in 1975, providedfor joint Iranian-Israeli development of a new “ultra-modernmissile” that could carry a 750-kilogram payload 17 and be capableof delivering a nuclear warhead. 18 Under the agreement <strong>on</strong> cooperati<strong>on</strong>,Israel was to be resp<strong>on</strong>sible for developing and manufacturingthe delivery vehicles, while Iran was to finance the project. Also,there was some informati<strong>on</strong> that Israel and Iran were cooperatingin a joint uranium enrichment project, with South Africa providingtechnological support. 19The accelerated development of the nuclear fuel cycle (NFC)in Iran and the ability of the Shah’s regime to establish ties internati<strong>on</strong>allyin the sensitive areas of the nuclear fuel cycle (uranium enrichmentand reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel) provoked the c<strong>on</strong>cernof the Soviet Uni<strong>on</strong>, which in October 1976 objected to Frenchplans to supply Iran with a plant for radio-chemical reprocessingof the spent nuclear fuel. 20Iran’s <str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuclear</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Program</str<strong>on</strong>g> Followingthe Islamic Revoluti<strong>on</strong>Initially, the new leadership that came to power in Iran as a resultof the 1979 Islamic Revoluti<strong>on</strong> evinced no interest in a nuclear program.On the <strong>on</strong>e hand, this was a c<strong>on</strong>sequence of the ec<strong>on</strong>omic crisisin the country at the time and the fact that there were other prioritiesto be addressed, and <strong>on</strong> the other hand it was due to the breakin diplomatic relati<strong>on</strong>s with the United States and the chill in relati<strong>on</strong>swith other nati<strong>on</strong>s that had previously helped Iran to pursuenuclear research. Moreover, the large-scale emigrati<strong>on</strong> of scientiststhat followed the Islamic Revoluti<strong>on</strong> diminished the nati<strong>on</strong>’s scientific,technological, and material capabilities in the nuclear sec-

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