Nuclear Reset - Program on Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE)

56<strong>Nuclear</strong> <strong>Reset</strong>: Arms Reduction and Nonproliferationa new SS-NX-30 SLBM system (Bulava), which has had ten successfuland seven failed tests. Thus, the new nuclear missile carrierhas no missile to carry, and this has delayed the constructionof the fourth SSBN. Previous generation submarines, however, arebeing deployed with the modified SS-N-23 Sineva SLBMs.Russia is also continuing to build Tu-160 Air Force bombers (witha new aircraft coming off the production line every few years) and isdeveloping a new ALCM system in both nuclear and conventionalmodes.Unlike the United States, Russia does not disclose whether itsstrategic delivery vehicles carry new warheads or are still equippedwith the old, tried-and-tested varieties.The tactical systems are being upgraded through the deploymentof Iskander tactical missiles, which can be equipped with either nuclearor conventional warheads. There is also a chance that the newSu-34 frontline bomber will also be dual purpose.The future structure and scale of Russia’s SNFs is being determinedby the rate at which the old systems of the 1980s and 1990s are beingdecommissioned and by the scope of new deployments. Sincethese systems are being decommissioned much faster than they arebeing replaced, the SNF levels will continue to steadily decline overthe coming decade and probably beyond. This means that the NewSTART will have little impact on the Russian nuclear posture. Forexample, by 2020, Russia could have around 150 SS-27 Sickle B andSS-X-29 ICBMs, another 30 SS-19 missiles, three or four Dolgorukiyclass SSBNs (which would carry between 44 and 60 SS-NX-30SLBMs), and 40 to 50 Tu-160 and Tu-95 bombers, for a grand totalof 300 delivery vehicles carrying 1,400 to 1,500 warheads (or 1,000to 1,100 warheads, according to the New START counting rules).At the same time, the actual number of warheads could vary greatly,depending on the final number of warheads carried by the SS-X-29and SS-NX-30 missiles.Russia’s current nuclear strategy was presented in the newMilitary Doctrine, which was published in February 2010. 11 Thisguideline document reads, in part: “The Russian Federation ensuresthe permanent readiness of the Armed Forces and other troopsto deter and prevent military conflicts and provide armed protectionof the Russian Federation and its allies in accordance withthe norms of international law and the Russian Federation’s inter-national treaties. …The prevention of a nuclear military conflict,