PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPIndex of Tables and FiguresINDEX OF FIGURESFigure 1.1 – System Capacity Chart ............................................................................................... 4Figure 1.2 – Monthly and Annual Average Energy Balance.......................................................... 4Figure 1.3 – Projected PacifiCorp Resource Energy Mix............................................................... 9Figure 2.1 – Integrated Resource Planning Analytical Process Steps .......................................... 16Figure 3.1 – Sub-regional Transmission Planning Groups in the WECC .................................... 47Figure 3.2 – Western Interconnection Transmission Congestion Areas/Paths............................. 55Figure 3.3 – Conditional Constraint Areas ................................................................................... 56Figure 4.1 – Contract Capacity in the 2007 Load and Resource Balance .................................... 75Figure 4.2 – Changes in Contract Capacity in the Load and Resource Balance .......................... 75Figure 4.3 – System Coincident Peak Capacity Chart.................................................................. 82Figure 4.4 – West Coincident Peak Capacity Chart ..................................................................... 83Figure 4.5 – East Coincident Peak Capacity Chart....................................................................... 84Figure 4.6 – Average Monthly and Annual System Energy Balances ......................................... 86Figure 4.7 – Average Monthly and Annual West Energy Balances............................................. 86Figure 4.8 – Average Monthly and Annual East Energy Balances .............................................. 87Figure 5.1 – Proxy Wind Sites and Maximum Capacity Availabilities...................................... 101Figure 5.2 – DSM Decrement, Daily End Use Shape (megawatts)............................................ 107Figure 5.3 – DSM Decrement, Weekly Peaks (megawatts) ....................................................... 108Figure 5.4 – Transmission Options Topology ............................................................................ 114Figure 6.1 – Modeling and Risk Analysis Process ..................................................................... 118Figure 6.2 – System Average Annual Natural Gas Prices: Low, Medium, and High ScenarioValues ................................................................................................................................. 122Figure 6.3 – System Average Annual Electricity Prices for Heavy and Light Load Hour NaturalGas Prices: Low, Medium, and High Scenario Values....................................................... 123Figure 6.4 – Two-Stage Risk Analysis Portfolio Development Process .................................... 129Figure 7.1 – Cumulative Resource Additions by Year for Alternative Future Studies .............. 142Figure 7.2 – Cumulative Wind Additions for CAF07 and SAS16 ............................................. 151Figure 7.3 – CEM Fossil Fuel Resource Selection Frequency ................................................... 152Figure 7.4 – Wind Capacity Preferences for Alternative Future Scenarios................................ 154Figure 7.5 – Wind Location Preferences for Alternative Future Scenarios................................ 155Figure 7.6 – Class 1 DSM Selection Frequency for Alternative Future Scenarios, 2007-2016. 156Figure 7.7 – Class 1 DSM Average Megawatts for Alternative Future Scenarios, 2007-2016.. 157Figure 7.8 – CHP Quantities Selected for Each Alternative Future Scenario, 2007-2016......... 158Figure 7.9 – Stochastic Mean Cost by CO 2 Adder Case............................................................. 163Figure 7.10 – Customer Rate Impact .......................................................................................... 164Figure 7.11 – Total Capital Cost by Portfolio............................................................................. 166Figure 7.12 – Average Stochastic Cost versus Risk Exposure ................................................... 169Figure 7.13 – Stochastic Cost versus Risk Exposure for the $0 CO 2 Adder Case ..................... 170Figure 7.14 – Stochastic Cost versus Risk Exposure for the $61 CO 2 Adder Case ................... 170Figure 7.15 – Generator CO 2 Emissions by Cost Adder Level, Cumulative for 2007-2016...... 174Figure 7.16 – Generator CO 2 Emissions by Cost Adder Level, Cumulative for 2007-2026...... 174Figure 7.17 – Stochastic Average Annual Energy Not Served................................................... 176Figure 7.18 – Upper-Tail Stochastic Mean Energy Not Served ................................................. 177Figure 7.19 – Customer Rate Impact .......................................................................................... 187Figure 7.20 – Total Capital Cost by Portfolio............................................................................. 189x
PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPIndex of Tables and FiguresFigure 7.21 – Average Stochastic Cost versus Risk Exposure ................................................... 191Figure 7.22 – Stochastic Cost versus Risk Exposure for the $0 CO 2 Adder Case ..................... 192Figure 7.23 – Stochastic Cost versus Risk Exposure for the $61 CO 2 Adder Case ................... 192Figure 7.24 – Annual CO 2 Emission Trends, 2007-2026, ($8 CO 2 Adder Case)....................... 194Figure 7.25 – Annual CO 2 Emission Trends, 2007-2026, ($61 CO 2 Adder Case)..................... 195Figure 7.26 – Annual CO 2 Emissions Trends, 2007-2016 ($8 CO 2 Adder Case) ...................... 195Figure 7.27 – Annual CO 2 Emissions Trends, 2007-2016 ($61 CO 2 Adder Case) .................... 196Figure 7.28 – Annual CO 2 Emissions Trends, 2007-2016 ($8 CO 2 Adder Case) ...................... 196Figure 7.29 – Annual CO 2 Emissions Trends, 2007-2016 ($61 CO 2 Adder Case) .................... 197Figure 7.30 – Energy Not Served for the $8 CO 2 Adder Case ................................................... 198Figure 7.31 – Upper-Tail Mean Energy Not Served for the $8 CO 2 Adder Case ...................... 199Figure 7.32 – Current and Projected PacifiCorp Resource Energy Mix..................................... 207Figure 7.33 – Current and Projected PacifiCorp Resource Capacity Mix.................................. 208Figure 7.34 – Fleet Average Fossil Fuel Heat Rate Annual Trend by Generator Type ............. 210Figure 7.35 – East Decrement Price Trends ............................................................................... 212Figure 7.36 – West Decrement Price Trends.............................................................................. 212Figure 7.37 – Average Stochastic Cost versus Risk Exposure Across All CO 2 Adder Cases.... 216Figure 7.38 – Stochastic Cost versus Risk Exposure for the $0 CO 2 Adder Case ..................... 216Figure 7.39 – Stochastic Cost versus Risk Exposure for the $61 CO 2 Adder Case ................... 217Figure 7.40 – Annual CO 2 Emission Trends, 2007-2026 ($0 CO 2 Adder Case)........................ 218Figure 7.41 – Annual CO 2 Emission Trends, 2007-2026 ($61 CO 2 Adder Case)...................... 218Figure 7.42 – Annual CO 2 Emission Trends, 2007-2026 (Average for all CO 2 Adder Cases).. 219xi
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PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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