PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPTable Of ContentsResource Screening..............................................................................................................................118Alternative Future Scenarios........................................................................................................... 119Carbon Dioxide Regulation Cost .................................................................................................121Commodity Coal Cost..................................................................................................................122Natural Gas and Electricity Prices ...............................................................................................122Retail Load Growth......................................................................................................................123Renewable Portfolio Standards....................................................................................................123Class 1 and Class 3 DSM Potential..............................................................................................123Sensitivity Analysis Scenarios for the Capacity Expansion Module .............................................. 124Sensitivity Analysis Scenarios for the Planning and Risk Module................................................. 126Capacity Expansion Module Optimization Runs ............................................................................ 126Risk Analysis Portfolio Development..................................................................................................127Determination of Fixed Resource Investment Schedules................................................................ 128Alternative Resource Strategies ...................................................................................................... 128Optimization Runs for Risk Analysis Portfolio Development........................................................ 128Stochastic Simulation of Risk Analysis Portfolios ..............................................................................129Stochastic Risk Analysis................................................................................................................. 129Scenario Risk Analysis ................................................................................................................... 130Portfolio Performance Measures..........................................................................................................131Stochastic Mean Cost...................................................................................................................... 131Customer Rate Impact..................................................................................................................... 132Environmental Externality Cost...................................................................................................... 132Risk Exposure ................................................................................................................................. 134Capital Cost..................................................................................................................................... 134Production Cost Variability............................................................................................................. 134Carbon Dioxide Emissions.............................................................................................................. 134Supply Reliability............................................................................................................................ 134Energy Not Served.......................................................................................................................134Loss of Load Probability..............................................................................................................135Preferred Portfolio Selection................................................................................................................136Class 2 Demand-side Management Program Analysis ........................................................................136Decrement Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 136Public Utility Commission Guidelines for Conservation Program Analysis in the IRP................. 1377. Modeling and Portfolio Selection Results ........................................................................................139Introduction..........................................................................................................................................140Alternative Future and Sensitivity Scenario Results............................................................................140Alternative Future Scenario Results................................................................................................ 140Demand-side Management Program Selection Patterns..............................................................142DSM Potential Scenarios .............................................................................................................143Load Growth Scenarios................................................................................................................143Gas/Electricity Price Scenarios....................................................................................................145Carbon Dioxide Adder/Coal Cost Scenarios ...............................................................................146Sensitivity Analysis Results............................................................................................................ 147Resource Selection Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 151Risk Analysis Portfolio Development – Group 1 ................................................................................153Fixed Resource Additions for Risk Analysis Portfolios ................................................................. 154Renewables ..................................................................................................................................154Class 1 Demand-side Management Programs .............................................................................155Combined Heat and Power Resources.........................................................................................157Alternative Resource Strategies ...................................................................................................... 158Stochastic Simulation Results – Group 1 Portfolios ............................................................................161iv