PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPTable Of ContentsStochastic Mean Cost...................................................................................................................... 162Customer Rate Impact..................................................................................................................... 164Emissions Externality Cost ............................................................................................................. 165Capital Cost..................................................................................................................................... 165Stochastic Risk Measures................................................................................................................ 166Cost/Risk Tradeoff Analysis ........................................................................................................... 169Resource Strategy Risk Reduction.................................................................................................. 171Carbon Dioxide and Other Emissions............................................................................................. 171Supply Reliability............................................................................................................................ 176Energy Not Served.......................................................................................................................176Loss of Load Probability..............................................................................................................177Portfolio Resource Conclusions...................................................................................................... 179Risk Analysis Portfolio Development – Group 2 ................................................................................179Alternative Resource Strategies ...................................................................................................... 181Stochastic Simulation Results..............................................................................................................186Stochastic Mean Cost...................................................................................................................... 186Customer Rate Impact..................................................................................................................... 187Emissions Externality Cost ............................................................................................................. 187Capital Cost..................................................................................................................................... 188Stochastic Risk Measures................................................................................................................ 190Cost/Risk Tradeoff Analysis ........................................................................................................... 191Carbon Dioxide and Other Emissions............................................................................................. 193Supply Reliability............................................................................................................................ 198Stochastic Simulation Sensitivity Analyses .........................................................................................20012-Percent Planning Reserve Margin with Class 3 Demand-side Management Programs............. 201Plan to an 18-Percent Planning Reserve Margin............................................................................. 201Replace a 2012 Base Load Resource with Front Office Transactions ............................................ 201Replace a Base Load Pulverized Coal Resource with a Carbon-Capture-Ready IGCC ................. 201Replace a Base Load Resource with CHP and Dispatchable Customer Standby Generation......... 202Preferred Portfolio Selection and Justification ....................................................................................202Planning Reserve Margin Selection ................................................................................................ 203The Role of Front Office Transactions and Market Availability Considerations ........................... 205Fuel Diversity Planning .......................................................................................................................205Forecasted Fossil Fuel Generator Heat Rate Trend .............................................................................209Class 2 DSM Decrement Analysis.......................................................................................................210Modeling Results ............................................................................................................................ 210Regulatory Scenario Risk Analysis – Greenhouse Gas Emissions Performance Standards................213Scenario Study Approach................................................................................................................ 213Stochastic Cost and Risk Results .................................................................................................... 214Carbon Dioxide Emissions Results................................................................................................. 2178. Action Plan .........................................................................................................................................221Introduction..........................................................................................................................................222The Integrated Resource Plan Action Plan ..........................................................................................223Resource Procurement .........................................................................................................................229Overall Resource Procurement Strategy ......................................................................................... 229Renewable Resources...................................................................................................................... 229Demand-side Management.............................................................................................................. 229Combined Heat and Power.............................................................................................................. 230Distributed Generation .................................................................................................................... 230Thermal Base Load/Intermediate Load Resources ......................................................................... 230Front Office Transactions ............................................................................................................... 231v