PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andStochastic Risk MeasuresTable 7.39 reports the portfolio stochastic risk results for each of the CO 2 adder cases. Risk exposure,production cost standard deviation, fifth-percentile PVRR, ninety-fifth-percentile PVRR,and upper-tail PVRR are presented for the cap-and-trade compliance strategy. (Note that relativerisk measure rankings are the same under both CO 2 emissions compliance strategies.)Portfolio RA13, with four pulverized coal plants, performed the best overall on the risk measures,followed by RA16 with its two east CCCT resources and 15% planning reserve margin. Asexpected, RA17 has the highest risk due to its heavy reliance on the market. Interestingly, RA14performed the best on the basis of the 5 th percentile measure, indicating that it could be a goodperformer under a confluence of low-cost conditions.Table 7.39 – Stochastic Risk ResultsRisk Exposure(Upper-Tail PVRR minusMean PVRR)StandardDeviation5thPercentile95thPercentileUpper-Tail MeanID Million $ Rank$0 Adder (2008$)RA13 43,703 2 12,020 13,628 36,692 65,309RA14 44,056 3 12,094 13,584 35,315 65,316RA15 44,718 4 12,296 13,518 35,918 66,040RA16 43,638 1 11,987 13,732 35,196 64,974RA17 45,339 5 12,460 13,464 36,198 66,766$8 Adder (2008$)RA13 46,984 1 13,016 11,846 38,652 68,994RA14 47,523 3 13,134 11,620 37,066 69,082RA15 48,198 4 13,339 11,576 37,665 69,830RA16 47,128 2 13,034 11,693 36,970 68,753RA17 48,812 5 13,501 11,661 37,935 70,562$15 Adder (2008$)RA13 48,668 1 13,556 10,987 39,736 70,950RA14 49,195 3 13,666 10,725 38,038 70,977RA15 49,863 4 13,868 10,695 38,629 71,626RA16 48,775 2 13,560 10,840 37,933 70,510RA17 50,501 5 14,036 11,903 38,907 72,398$38 Adder (2008$)RA13 55,855 2 15,852 9,908 43,993 43,993RA14 56,258 3 15,927 8,226 41,426 41,426RA15 56,971 4 16,136 8,223 42,019 42,019RA16 55,835 1 15,827 8,264 41,311 41,311RA17 57,704 5 16,322 8,357 42,326 42,326$61 Adder (2008$)RA13 64,344 2 18,544 6,740 48,252 87,060RA14 64,614 3 18,584 4,562 44,875 85,596RA15 65,396 4 18,805 4,728 45,468 86,564RA16 64,159 1 18,482 4,481 44,719 85,093190
PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andRisk Exposure(Upper-Tail PVRR minusMean PVRR)StandardDeviation5thPercentile95thPercentileUpper-Tail MeanID Million $ RankRA17 66,238 5 19,010 5,611 45,870 87,724Average across Adder CasesRA13 51,911 2 14,598 10,622 41,465 74,168RA14 52,329 3 14,681 9,743 39,344 73,730RA15 53,029 4 14,889 9,748 39,940 74,537RA16 51,907 1 14,578 9,802 39,226 73,340RA17 53,719 5 15,066 9,999 40,247 75,403Cost/Risk Tradeoff AnalysisThe three figures below are scatter plots of portfolio cost (PVRR) and risk exposure. Figure 7.21plots the average PVRR and risk exposure across the CO 2 adder cases. Figures 7.22 and 7.23show the cost-risk relationship for the $0 CO 2 adder case and the $61 CO 2 adder case, respectively.The figures indicate that RA14 has the best balance of cost and risk on an average basis acrossthe five CO 2 adder cases, as well as for adders greater than $0. Portfolio RA17 fares relativelypoorly, having both a higher cost and risk than the other portfolios.Figure 7.21 – Average Stochastic Cost versus Risk ExposureAverage Across All CO2 Adder CasesCO2 Cap and Trade BasisRisk Exposure: Upper-Tail Stochastic Meanminus Overall Mean PVRR (Billion $)54.0053.0052.0051.00RA17RA15RA14RA16RA1321.2 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.2Stochastic Mean PVRR (Billion $)191
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PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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