PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andming and small Utah supercritical pulverized coal units. With few exceptions, the CEM addedthese coal units as soon as they were available for selection. Based on this result, PacifiCorpjudged these coal resources to be robust options under the set of alternative futures evaluated.Figure 7.3 shows the selection frequency for all fossil fuel resources.Regarding gas resource selection, CCCTs came into play only under scenarios that included lowgas/electricity prices or high load growth. Selection of single-cycle combustion turbine framesappears to be sensitive to the level of load growth assumed; these resources were added for twoscenarios with high load growth, as well as the medium load growth scenario. Given these selectionpatterns, gas plants are not judged to be robust resources under deterministic modeling conditions.However, it should be noted that the CEM deterministic runs do not capture the optionalityvalue of gas resources; consequently, testing them in a stochastic modeling environment isnecessary to estimate their full value in a diversified portfolio.Figure 7.3 – CEM Fossil Fuel Resource Selection Frequency161412Frequency (N = 16)1086420Large PulverizedCoal WY #1Small PulverizedCoal UTLarge PulverizedCoal UTCCCT F 2x1 WestIGCC West #1CCCT F 2x1 UtahLarge PulverizedCoal WY #2SCCT Frame WestCCCT G 1x1 WestSCCT Frame UtahIGCC WYIGCC West #2IGCC UtahCoal Coal Coal Gas Coal Gas Coal Gas Gas Gas Coal Coal CoalFossil Fuel Resources152
PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andWind appeared in 15 out of the 16 alternative future studies. While this resource is consideredrobust as far as inclusion in the CEM’s investment plans is concerned, unlike the pulverized coalresources, a robust quantity can’t be determined due to the wide variance in selected wind capacitiesamong the alternative future studies. Consequently, the company used measures of centraltendency to determine an initial wind investment schedule for inclusion in the risk analysisportfolios. The development of the wind investment schedule is described in the next section.The CEM chose IGCC for 10 out of the 16 alternative futures, with the west IGCC units (total of500 megawatts) selected in seven futures and the east IGCC units selected in four futures. Themodel’s selection of east-side IGCC resources was predicated on the high load growth assumption,and these resources were generally added beyond the 10-year investment horizon (2007–2016).RISK ANALYSIS PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT – GROUP 1To develop the first risk analysis portfolio, PacifiCorp first combined the fixed wind, DSM, andCHP investment schedules described below, along with the other resource options. The CEMwas then executed with this set of resources using the medium-case assumptions adopted for thealternative future studies. The resulting CEM investment plan, labeled as RA1, thus parallels theplan that resulted from the “medium case” alternative future (CAF11) run. To derive subsequentrisk analysis portfolios, PacifiCorp applied one or a combination of alternative resource strategiesto RA1 or other variants of RA1 prior to CEM execution.Twelve portfolios were initially developed with input received from public stakeholders duringthe fall of 2006. PacifiCorp used the associated portfolio simulation results and the analysis supportingthe 10-year Business Plan to formulate a “base case” resource proposal that was sharedwith regulators.The feedback received on the resource proposal, as well as recent external events 53 and an assessmentof state resource policy directions, prompted the company to investigate portfolio alternativesthat recognize existing and expected state resource acquisition constraints. A new set ofrisk analysis portfolios was consequently created to address these constraints while still adheringto system planning principles and the states’ IRP development guidelines. (The new risk analysisportfolios also account for the revised load forecast.)This second portfolio group constitutes the “finalists” from which the preferred was selected.The original set of 12 risk analysis portfolios informed the construction of these new portfolios.This chapter documents both sets of portfolios, which are referenced as “Group 1” and “Group2”.53 These events, cited in Chapter 3, include the Oregon PUC rejection of the 2012 RFP for baseload resources andissuance of new IRP guidelines (January 2006), adoption of renewable portfolio standards in Washington, California’sadoption of a green house gas emissions performance standard, and introduction of climate change legislationin both Oregon and Washington.153
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PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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