PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 6 – Modeling and Risk Analysis ApproachFor reporting LOLP, PacifiCorp calculates the probability of Energy Not Served events, wherethe magnitude of the ENS exceeds given threshold levels. PacifiCorp is strongly interconnectedwith the regional network; therefore, only events that occur at the time of the regional peak arethe ones likely to have significant consequences; of those events, small shortfalls are likely to beresolved with a quick (though expensive) purchase. In Chapter 7, the proportion of iterationswith ENS events in July exceeding selected threshold levels are reported for each risk analysisportfolio simulated with the PaR module. The LOLP is reported as a study average as well asyear-by-year results for an example threshold level of 25,000 Megawatt-hours. This thresholdmethodology follows the lead of the Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Forum, which reportsthe probability of a “significant event” occurring during the winter season.PREFERRED PORTFOLIO SELECTIONThe preferred portfolio is selected from among the risk analysis portfolios primarily on the basisof relative cost-effectiveness, customer rate impact, and the balance between cost and risk exposure.Also important is the robustness of the portfolios with respect to their cost and risk performanceunder successively higher CO 2 adder scenarios; the portfolios that consistently rank thehighest regardless of the assumed CO 2 adder are strong contenders for selection as the preferredportfolio. Supply reliability risk and CO 2 emissions are also important, but play a lesser role inselecting the preferred portfolio because differences among portfolios with respect to thesemeasures are relatively small.These primary selection criteria are in line with state IRP guidelines that dictate that the preferredportfolio be least-cost after accounting for uncertainty, risk, and the long-run public interest.CLASS 2 DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT PROGRAM ANALYSISDecrement AnalysisFor the Class 2 demand-side management decrement analysis, the preferred portfolio was used tocalculate the reduced system operating costs (or decrement value) of various types of Class 2programs. PacifiCorp will use these decrements values when evaluating the cost-effectiveness ofcurrent programs and potential new DSM programs between IRP cycles.The process used for this IRP is to model Class 2 DSM program types as contracts that supplyenergy according to hourly load shapes provided by PacifiCorp’s DSM department. These contractsserve as surrogates for direct load reductions attributable to energy efficiency programs.The Planning and Risk Module is then run in stochastics mode with and without the Class 2DSM resources to establish the change in system cost (reduction in the stochastic mean PVRRfor 100 simulations) from lower market purchases or resource re-optimization due to the additionof the Class 2 DSM. This approach differs from that used in the 2004 IRP. For the 2004 IRP, theload decrements were modeled as reductions in the load forecasts, with system cost differencesdetermined by deterministic PaR runs. The new approach simplifies the data set-up process andaccounts for stochastic risk in the cost estimates.136
PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 6 – Modeling and Risk Analysis ApproachTo determine the Class 2 DSM decrements, 12 shaped planning decrements, each at 100 megawattsat peak, were modeled starting in 2010 throughout the 20-year IRP study period. The decrementsare shaped to each of the following loads for both the east and west control areas. Table6.5 below provides an overview of the planning decrement design, showing the load size (loadfactor) and end-use hourly load shape.Table 6.5 – Planning Decrement DesignDecrementSizeEast System LoadCenterWest System LoadCenterEnd-Use Hourly LoadShape100 MW 7% Load Factor 20% Load Factor Residential Cooling100 MW 60% Load Factor 60% Load Factor Residential Lighting100 MW 46% Load Factor n/a Residential Whole House100 MW 16% Load Factor 16% Load Factor Commercial Cooling100 MW 49% Load Factor 49% Load Factor Commercial Lighting100 MW n/a 28% Load Factor Residential Heating100 MW East load shape(approx. 65% LoadFactor)West load shape(approx. 67% LoadFactor)East/West System LoadThe company will evaluate additional DSM program opportunities by replacing the forwardmarket-priceavoided cost used in the traditional DSM cost effectiveness tests with the shapeddecrement values. For such evaluations, the decrement values will be pro-rated to match the loadshape of new DSM proposals. Once new programs are implemented, their contributions to loadreductions will be incorporated directly into the load forecast used for the next IRP.Public Utility Commission Guidelines for Conservation Program Analysis in the IRPDuring the 2007 integrated resource planning process and development of the company’s Class 2energy efficiency resource assessment, there were questions raised as to whether PacifiCorp hadsufficient information available, absent the completion of a system-wide demand-side resourceassessment study, to arrive at a fair representation of the energy efficiency resource potentialavailable over the planning period. While having additional data from such a study would likelyhave provided additional clarity around this assessment, the company had several other reliablesources of information from which to arrive at a forecast of achievable resource potential as representedwithin the 2007 IRP. These sources have been used for prior planning exercises andcontinue to be used to identify significant resource opportunities. Additionally, these sourceshave proven reliable in the past in helping the company achieve verifiable results.Class 2 energy efficiency resources comprise a significant portion of the overall demand-sidemanagement investments and resource targets within the 2007 IRP. There are approximately250 MWa of Class 2 energy efficiency resources accounted for within the 2007 preferred portfolio.These resources were identified through a composite of resource assessment exercises conductedover the last five years. These assessments, coupled with the performance of the company’sexisting demand-side resource portfolio and associated lessons-learned, aided PacifiCorpin the development of the 2007 Class 2 energy efficiency plan contributions. The studies andinformation sources relied upon included market-specific as well as measure-specific characteri-137
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PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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