PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andThe most interesting model behavior relates to the type of gas resource selected under each loadgrowth scenario. For the low load growth scenario (CAF12), the model selects no central-stationgas resources; instead, it relies mostly on coal builds. Under the medium load growth scenario(CAF11), the model then turns to SCCT frames and additional pulverized coal to address thehigher loads, but no CCCT capacity was added to the investment plan at this point. (Wind nameplatecapacity also doubled from 900 to 1,800 megawatts.) Under the high load growth scenario(CAF13), the next incremental resources selected were IGCC and CCCT, with the model havingalready selected all SCPC resources available to it under medium load growth conditions.Tables 7.5, 7.6 and 7.7 show the CEM’s resource additions for all scenarios that include the low,medium, and high load growth assumptions, respectively. The model tends to add pulverizedcoal first to meet incremental load growth, and then add significantly more gas and wind resourcesunder the higher load growth scenarios. For all scenarios that include high load growth,the model chooses every SCPC resource available to it.Table 7.5 – Resource Additions for Scenarios with Low Load GrowthDSM Coal-SCPC Coal-IGCC GasWindNameplateScenario Cumulative Build Amounts (MW): 2007-2018CAF02 78 2,440 500 - 600CAF05 99 - - 125 2,100CAF12 150 1,500 500 100 900CAF14 150 750 - 25 500Average 119 1,173 500 63 600Table 7.6 – Resource Additions for Scenarios with Medium Load GrowthDSM Coal-SCPC Coal-IGCC GasWindNameplateScenario Cumulative Build Amounts (MW): 2007-2018CAF00 150 2,440 500 125 500CAF01 151 2,440 2,002 25 1,100CAF04 78 - - 1,823 2,200CAF07 58 2,440 500 100 3,600CAF08 129 750 - 1,275 -CAF09 64 2,440 500 100 3,100CAF10 68 750 - 1,225 700CAF11 211 2,440 500 759 1,800Average 114 1,957 800 679 1,625Table 7.7 – Resource Additions for Scenarios with High Load GrowthDSM Coal-SCPC Coal-IGCC GasWindNameplateScenario Cumulative Build Amounts (MW): 2007-2018CAF03 169 2,440 2,510 1,361 3,100CAF06 169 - 3,923 2,400CAF13 233 2,440 2,002 1,753 2,700144