PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andAverage for operating years 2007 through 2026Event Size(MWh) RA13 RA14 RA15 RA16 RA17> 50,000 16% 15% 16% 14% 20%> 100,000 11% 11% 12% 11% 16%> 500,000 4% 3% 4% 3% 5%> 1,000,000 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%Table 7.43 displays the year-by-year results for the threshold value of 25,000 megawatt-hours.For each year, the LOLP value represents the proportion of the 100 iterations where the JulyENS was greater than 25,000 megawatt-hours. This is the equivalent of 2,500 megawatts for 10hours.Table 7.43 – Year-by-Year Loss of Load ProbabilityYear RA13 RA14 RA15 RA16 RA172007 1% 2% 2% 2% 2%2008 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%2009 8% 10% 10% 10% 10%2010 13% 12% 12% 13% 12%2011 16% 16% 16% 10% 16%2012 7% 7% 7% 4% 9%2013 13% 12% 12% 8% 13%2014 15% 10% 10% 8% 16%2015 23% 18% 18% 15% 22%2016 20% 16% 20% 17% 26%2017 23% 26% 29% 25% 30%2018 28% 26% 30% 27% 39%2019 15% 18% 19% 20% 30%2020 22% 23% 27% 25% 31%2021 24% 22% 25% 23% 33%2022 32% 29% 31% 34% 38%2023 28% 23% 28% 22% 36%2024 36% 25% 27% 30% 36%2025 41% 28% 33% 32% 32%2026 49% 28% 28% 29% 37%STOCHASTIC SIMULATION SENSITIVITY ANALYSESPacifiCorp performed several stochastic simulation studies to test the stochastic cost, risk, andreliability impacts of planning reserve margin and resource type assumptions against a referenceportfolio. Table 7.44 lists the sensitivity analysis studies conducted and the reference portfoliosused. The study assumptions and results are summarized below.200