PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andFigure 7.22 – Stochastic Cost versus Risk Exposure for the $0 CO 2 Adder Case$0 CO2 Adder CaseCO2 Cap and Trade Basis46.00Risk Exposure: Upper-Tail Stochastic Mean minusOverall Mean PVRR (Billion $)45.0044.00RA17RA15RA14RA16RA1343.0020.8 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.8Stochastic Mean PVRR (Billion $)Figure 7.23 – Stochastic Cost versus Risk Exposure for the $61 CO 2 Adder Case$61 CO2 Adder CaseCO2 Cap and Trade Basis67.00Risk Exposure: Upper-Tail Stochastic Meanminus Overall Mean PVRR (Billion $)66.0065.00RA14RA16RA15RA17RA1364.0020.8 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.2Stochastic Mean PVRR (Billion $)192
PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andCarbon Dioxide and Other EmissionsTable 7.40 reports for the portfolios the total system CO 2 emissions for the $8 adder and $61adder cases. Total emissions are presented as the contribution from direct sources (generators)plus indirect emissions from purchases less emissions attributed to wholesale sales 62 , and arereported for 2007-to-2016 and 2007-to-2026. Portfolio RA16 has the lowest CO 2 emissions forboth CO 2 adder levels, followed closely by RA14. For RA16, the early addition of a CCCT displacesfront office transactions, which have a slightly higher CO 2 emission rate than a CCCT.Portfolio RA13 has the highest CO 2 emissions because of the additional two coal plants.CO 2 Adder Breakeven Analysis for Coal versus Gas Combined CyclePacifiCorp conducted a study to determine the CO 2 adder level that causes the CEM to select a combined cyclecombustion turbine over a supercritical pulverized coal plant. The model was executed at various CO 2 addersbetween $8/ton and $40/ton (in 2008 dollars) to converge on the breakeven point. The study was performed on aportfolio that had the 600 megawatts of extra wind and a Wyoming supercritical pulverized coal acquired in2016. The simulations were designed to hold all influences constant except for the substitution of one coal plantwith a CCCT. Study assumptions included the following:• The pulverized coal and CCCT test resources were both sized at 575 megawatts• The two resources were located in the same topology bubble (Utah South)• The CEM was required to select either the coal or CCCT resource in 2016, but not both (mutually exclusiveoptions)• Each simulation used a set of forward natural gas and wholesale electricity prices that were adjusted to accountfor the effect of the CO 2 adder level testedThe breakeven CO 2 adder level was found to be $38/ton; up to this level, the CEM selected the coal plant ratherthan the CCCT. Over the range of CO 2 adders tested, a $1/ton increase in the adder translated into an average$373 million increase in deterministic Present Value of Revenue Requirements. (Note that the CEM treats thecost adder as an emissions tax.)Table 7.40 – CO 2 Emissions by Adder Case and Time Period (1,000 Tons)Direct(Generationonly)$8 CO 2 Adder Case2007 to 2016 2007 to 2026Total Directand NetIndirectRank(Total Directand NetIndirect)Direct(Generationonly)Total Directand NetIndirectRank(TotalDirect andNetIndirect)ScenarioIDRA13 493,664 523,812 5 1,064,261 1,127,571 5RA14 495,099 507,807 2 1,019,946 1,064,710 2RA15 495,040 508,332 3 1,021,983 1,068,540 3RA16 493,225 503,148 1 1,017,187 1,057,885 1RA17 495,186 512,737 4 1,023,767 1,075,848 462 Emissions imputed to purchases are based on a survey of 2005 PacifiCorp historical purchases, at 0.565 tons CO 2 /MWh. Emissions imputed to sales are based on a year-by-year system weighted average rate: Thermal plus PurchasesCO2 (tons)/Total System Generation (MWh).193
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PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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