PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)
PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)
PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)
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<strong>PacifiCorp</strong> – <strong>2007</strong> IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andAverage for operating years <strong>2007</strong> through 2026Event Size(MWh) RA1 RA2 RA3 RA4 RA5 RA6 RA7 RA8 RA9 RA10 RA11 RA12> 0 53% 52% 39% 54% 39% 52% 52% 54% 57% 55% 41% 43%> 1,000 44% 44% 33% 45% 33% 44% 43% 46% 49% 47% 35% 37%> 10,000 25% 24% 22% 26% 20% 26% 23% 27% 29% 27% 24% 26%> 25,000 20% 18% 18% 20% 15% 20% 18% 21% 23% 22% 19% 21%> 50,000 16% 14% 15% 15% 11% 16% 14% 17% 19% 18% 15% 17%> 100,000 12% 10% 11% 11% 8% 12% 10% 13% 14% 12% 11% 13%> 500,000 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4%> 1,000,000 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%Table 7.28 displays the year-by-year results for the threshold value of 25,000 MWh. (As mentionedin Chapter 6, the 25,000 MWh case was selected as an example to show the annual LOLPas required in the Oregon Commission’s 2004 IRP acknowledgement order.) For each year, theLOLP value represents the proportion of the 100 iterations where the July ENS was greater than25,000 MWhs. This is the equivalent of 2,500 megawatts for 10 hours.Table 7.28 – Year-by-Year Loss of Load Probability(Probability of ENS Event > 25,000 MWh in July)Year RA1 RA2 RA3 RA4 RA5 RA6 RA7 RA8 RA9 RA10 RA11 RA12<strong>2007</strong> 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%2008 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%2009 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%2010 13% 13% 13% 15% 13% 13% 13% 15% 15% 13% 13% 15%2011 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%2012 9% 5% 9% 6% 5% 7% 5% 10% 12% 9% 9% 11%2013 13% 6% 13% 7% 4% 13% 10% 15% 15% 14% 14% 17%2014 14% 6% 17% 8% 3% 17% 6% 14% 15% 16% 15% 15%2015 22% 14% 18% 16% 5% 23% 11% 19% 23% 24% 18% 22%2016 19% 13% 16% 14% 6% 19% 13% 19% 21% 18% 16% 17%2017 24% 23% 23% 22% 12% 29% 22% 23% 21% 21% 24% 25%2018 22% 17% 19% 19% 17% 21% 17% 22% 22% 23% 19% 19%2019 16% 19% 13% 19% 19% 13% 19% 15% 15% 15% 20% 21%2020 23% 22% 18% 23% 21% 15% 22% 22% 23% 23% 22% 23%2021 27% 23% 20% 26% 20% 23% 23% 26% 27% 27% 23% 25%2022 35% 37% 33% 38% 31% 39% 37% 39% 40% 39% 36% 39%2023 24% 23% 23% 28% 19% 27% 23% <strong>30</strong>% <strong>30</strong>% 31% 23% 24%2024 40% 39% 31% 41% 26% 40% 39% 42% 43% 42% <strong>30</strong>% 38%2025 33% <strong>30</strong>% 31% 45% 29% 35% <strong>30</strong>% 46% 47% 43% <strong>30</strong>% 33%2026 31% 31% 31% <strong>30</strong>% 28% 33% 31% 32% 48% 48% 28% 36%178
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