PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andFigure 7.31 – Upper-Tail Mean Energy Not Served for the $8 CO 2 Adder CaseUpper Tail Mean Energy Not Served, $8 CO2 Adder CaseAverage Annual Gigawatt-hours for 2007 to 20262,0001,5001,6971,2991,4771,2201,549aGWh1,00050012%PRM12%PRM12%PRM15%PRM12%PRM0RA13 RA14 RA15 RA16 RA17Loss of Load ProbabilityTable 7.42 displays the average Loss of Load Probability for each of the risk analysis portfoliosmodeled using the $8 CO 2 adder case. The first block of data is the average LOLP for the firstten years of the study period. The second block of data shows the same information calculatedfor the entire 20 years. The data is summarized against multiple levels of lost load, which showsthe likelihood of losing various amounts of load in a single event.Table 7.42 – Average Loss of Load Probability During Summer Peak(Probability of ENS Event > 25,000 MWh in July)Average for operating years 2007 through 2016Event Size(MWh) RA13 RA14 RA15 RA16 RA17> 0 29% 24% 25% 23% 26%> 1,000 24% 22% 22% 20% 24%> 10,000 16% 14% 15% 13% 17%> 25,000 12% 11% 11% 9% 13%> 50,000 9% 8% 8% 6% 10%> 100,000 6% 5% 5% 4% 7%> 500,000 1% 1% 1% 0% 1%> 1,000,000 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Average for operating years 2007 through 2026Event Size(MWh) RA13 RA14 RA15 RA16 RA17> 0 53% 38% 42% 36% 44%> 1,000 47% 33% 38% 32% 40%> 10,000 28% 22% 25% 22% 29%> 25,000 21% 18% 19% 18% 24%199