PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andTable 7.3 – DSM Resource Selection by Alternative Future TypeAlternative Future TypeNumber ofMegawatt AverageScenarios Class 1 DSM Class 3 DSM TotalLow Load Growth 4 47 72 119High Load Growth 4 89 84 178Low Coal Cost 6 81 84 165High Coal Cost 6 51 60 111Low Gas/Electricity Prices 6 51 65 116High Gas/Electricity Prices 6 52 68 120DSM Potential ScenariosThe two DSM potential scenarios, CAF09 and CAF10, are intended to determine how other resourcecosts affect the CEM’s choice of DSM resources at higher and lower levels of programparticipation. The High DSM potential scenario tests whether high fuel and market prices compensatefor the higher DSM resource cost that accompanies greater program participation. The“low DSM potential” scenario tests the opposite set of conditions. Note that as the market potentialincreases, the resource cost ($/kW/yr) for most of the DSM programs is higher as well. 51 Thehigher cost reflects a greater level of incentive and administrative expenditures needed to maintainprogram savings at an elevated level.As mentioned above, the CEM did not choose any Class 1 DSM programs under the high potentialscenario, even with a high CO 2 adder and high gas and electricity prices in place. (On theother hand, the CEM selected 3,100 megawatts of wind.) The only DSM resources selected werethe east and west demand buyback programs.For the low potential scenario, CAF10, both Class 1 and Class 2 programs are selected. However,the combined amounts are only 4 megawatts greater than the DSM total under the highpotential scenario.Load Growth ScenariosThe alternative future scenarios CAF10, CAF11, and CAF12 test the CEM’s resource preferencesunder a wide load growth range, holding other scenario variables constant. Table 7.4 profilesthe resource additions for each of these load growth scenarios.Table 7.4 – Resource Additions for Load Growth ScenariosLoad Growth Scenario DSM Coal-SCPC Coal-IGCC GasWindNameplateAssumptionCumulative Build Amounts (MW): 2007-2018Low CAF12 150 1,500 500 100 900Medium CAF11 211 2,440 500 759 1,800High CAF13 233 2,440 2,002 1,753 2,70051 Critical Peak Pricing is the only program type for which unit resource costs decrease as the market potential increases.143