PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andEmission Type and UnitsSO 2 NO X Hg CO 2ID 1000 Tons 1000 Tons Pounds 1000 TonsRA13 790 1,111 7,913 1,043,467RA14 750 1,063 7,615 998,044RA15 754 1,070 7,623 1,000,419RA16 742 1,052 7,590 994,806RA17 762 1,081 7,635 1,002,900$38 CO 2 Adder CaseRA13 751 1,047 7,651 996,446RA14 708 999 7,335 948,247RA15 712 1,007 7,347 951,276RA16 699 986 7,306 944,095RA17 722 1,020 7,367 955,222$61 CO 2 Adder CaseRA13 730 1,011 7,529 972,566RA14 686 964 7,195 922,926RA15 691 972 7,210 926,375RA16 677 950 7,163 918,006RA17 702 987 7,236 931,329Supply ReliabilityEnergy Not Served (ENS)Figures 7.30 and 7.31 show the average annual ENS and upper-tail ENS by portfolio for 2007–2026, respectively. RA16 has the smallest ENS amount at 135 gigawatt hours, followed byRA14. Portfolios RA13 and RA17 have the highest ENS due to the heavier reliance on front officetransactions to meet the load obligation. The ENS was also tested for the $0/ton CO 2 and$61/ton CO 2 and the amount of ENS was the same for each portfolio.Figure 7.30 – Energy Not Served for the $8 CO 2 Adder CaseStochastic Mean Energy Not Served, $8 CO2Average Annual GWh for 2007 - 2026aGWh-yr280260240220200180160140120100806040200257174162144135RA13 RA14 RA15 RA16 RA17WestEast198
PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andFigure 7.31 – Upper-Tail Mean Energy Not Served for the $8 CO 2 Adder CaseUpper Tail Mean Energy Not Served, $8 CO2 Adder CaseAverage Annual Gigawatt-hours for 2007 to 20262,0001,5001,6971,2991,4771,2201,549aGWh1,00050012%PRM12%PRM12%PRM15%PRM12%PRM0RA13 RA14 RA15 RA16 RA17Loss of Load ProbabilityTable 7.42 displays the average Loss of Load Probability for each of the risk analysis portfoliosmodeled using the $8 CO 2 adder case. The first block of data is the average LOLP for the firstten years of the study period. The second block of data shows the same information calculatedfor the entire 20 years. The data is summarized against multiple levels of lost load, which showsthe likelihood of losing various amounts of load in a single event.Table 7.42 – Average Loss of Load Probability During Summer Peak(Probability of ENS Event > 25,000 MWh in July)Average for operating years 2007 through 2016Event Size(MWh) RA13 RA14 RA15 RA16 RA17> 0 29% 24% 25% 23% 26%> 1,000 24% 22% 22% 20% 24%> 10,000 16% 14% 15% 13% 17%> 25,000 12% 11% 11% 9% 13%> 50,000 9% 8% 8% 6% 10%> 100,000 6% 5% 5% 4% 7%> 500,000 1% 1% 1% 0% 1%> 1,000,000 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Average for operating years 2007 through 2026Event Size(MWh) RA13 RA14 RA15 RA16 RA17> 0 53% 38% 42% 36% 44%> 1,000 47% 33% 38% 32% 40%> 10,000 28% 22% 25% 22% 29%> 25,000 21% 18% 19% 18% 24%199
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PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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