PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andFigure 7.8 – CHP Quantities Selected for Each Alternative Future Scenario, 2007-2016Megawatts1101009080706050403020100Business As UsualLow Cost Coal/High Cost Gas/Med Load GrowthLow Cost Coal/High Cost Gas/Low Load GrowthLow Cost Coal/High Cost Gas/High Load GrowthHigh Cost Coal/Low Cost Gas/Med Load GrowthHigh Cost Coal/Low Cost Gas/Low Load GrowthHigh Cost Coal/Low Cost Gas/High Load GrowthFavorable Wind EnvironmentUnfavorable Wind EnvironmentHigh DSM PotentialLow DSM PotentialMedium Load GrowthLow Load GrowthHigh Load GrowthLow Cost Portfolio BookendHigh Cost Portfolio BookendWestEastCAF00 CAF01 CAF02 CAF03 CAF04 CAF05 CAF06 CAF07 CAF08 CAF09 CAF10 CAF11 CAF12 CAF13 CAF14 CAF15Alternative Resource StrategiesThe original 12 risk analysis portfolios were developed according to five resource strategies.These portfolios are distinguished by the planning reserve margin level and the quantity and timingof wind, front office transactions, pulverized coal, and IGCC resources included. The fiveresource strategies are summarized below.● Reduce CO 2 cost risk by deferring coal plants until low CO 2 -emitting coal options with carbonsequestration are commercially proven (such as IGCC or pulverized coal with chill ammoniaCO 2 removal) 55 , or eliminating them as a resource option altogether.● Reduce electricity market price risk by eliminating long-term reliance on front office transactionsafter 2011, the year that PacifiCorp’s system becomes significantly capacity-short.● Acquire additional wind resources above the amount contained in the initial wind investmentschedule described above.● Plan to a 12 percent planning reserve margin to reduce the risk of having excess generationcapacity in the event that expected load growth does not materialize.● Acquire base load coal resources in the near term to hedge against high gas and electricityprices and price volatility.55 This strategy is what the Oregon PUC calls a “coal plant delay scenario”. It relies primarily on gas resources andmarket purchases to address any resource gaps until IGCC is available. (See OPUC IRP Acknowledgement Order,LC-39, Order No. 06-029, p. 51.)158