PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andtions. The sections below show how the portfolios compare to one another on the basis of thestochastic cost, risk, reliability, and emissions measures. The section concludes with a summaryportfolio performance assessment, as well as resource selection conclusions that informed thedevelopment of the second group of risk analysis portfolios.Stochastic Mean CostTable 7.18 reports the stochastic mean PVRR for each of the portfolios by CO 2 adder cases, andshows the portfolio rankings based on the PVRR average across the five adder cases. PortfolioRA1 has the lowest average PVRR, followed by RA7 and RA3. In contrast, RA5 and RA6 havethe highest average PVRRs.Table 7.18 – Portfolio Cost by CO 2 Adder CaseStochastic Mean PVRR (Million $)ID$0 Adder(2008$)$8 Adder(2008$)$15 Adder(2008$)$38 Adder(2008$)$61 Adder(2008$) Average RankRA1 21,016 21,346 21,614 21,865 21,706 21,509 1RA2 21,183 21,514 21,758 21,893 21,601 21,590 4RA3 21,269 21,515 21,740 21,827 21,482 21,567 3RA4 21,140 21,489 21,753 21,975 21,789 21,629 5RA5 21,921 22,238 22,496 22,583 22,225 22,292 11RA6 22,042 22,313 22,548 22,658 22,411 22,394 12RA7 21,414 21,642 21,829 21,732 21,200 21,563 2RA8 21,140 21,472 21,758 22,072 22,018 21,692 6RA9 21,663 21,964 22,242 22,510 22,423 22,160 10RA10 21,573 21,882 22,158 22,392 22,244 22,050 9RA11 21,529 21,769 22,019 22,139 21,827 21,857 8RA12 21,505 21,754 21,999 22,143 21,881 21,856 7Figure 7.9 shows the progression of each portfolio’s stochastic cost as the CO 2 adder increases.For most of the portfolios, the cost peaks at the $38 adder level, and then declines at the $61 adderlevel. This cost behavior is driven by the influence of CO 2 allowance trading activity in thestudies’ out-years, where a significant amount of allowance credits are realized.162