PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andFixed Resource Additions for Risk Analysis PortfoliosRenewablesA fixed wind resource investment schedule was included in all risk analysis portfolios. Pacifi-Corp developed an initial wind investment schedule based on a composite view of the resourceaddition patterns for the 16 alternative future scenarios covering the period 2007 through 2016.This initial wind investment schedule was modified as appropriate to support the testing of alternativeresource strategies.The CEM selected a wide range of wind resource capacities across the alternative future scenarios,from zero capacity for CAF08 (“unfavorable wind environment”) to 3,100 megawatts ofnameplate capacity for two scenarios (CAF07, “favorable wind environment” and CAF09, “highDSM potential”). The average nameplate amount for the 16 scenarios was 1,213 megawatts (fora capacity contribution of 235 megawatts), while the median amount was 950 megawatts. Theamount selected for the medium case scenario was 700 megawatts. The most frequently occurringamount was 400 megawatts for four scenarios.Figure 7.4 shows the amount of wind capacity that the CEM selected for each of the alternativefuture scenarios. Both nameplate capacity and capacity contribution are shown.Figure 7.4 – Wind Capacity Preferences for Alternative Future ScenariosMegawatts3500300025002000150010005000CAF00 CAF01 CAF02 CAF03 CAF04 CAF05 CAF06 CAF07 CAF08 CAF09 CAF10 CAF11 CAF12 CAF13 CAF14 CAF15 Ave.Wind Capacity Contribution 82 196 60 277 259 215 354 514 0 514 85 148 95 222 99 410 235Renew ables Nameplate 300 1,000 400 1,400 1,400 1,400 2,200 3,100 - 3,100 400 700 400 900 400 2,300 1213Wind Capacity ContributionRenewables NameplateFigure 7.5 profiles the CEM’s location preferences for wind resources across the alternative futureportfolios. It shows the number of scenarios in which wind was selected by location, and theaverage number of 100 megawatt project sites selected for each location four sites—SoutheastIdaho, Southwest Wyoming, North Central Oregon, and East Central Nevada—appeared in themajority of the scenarios. The southeast Wyoming location (SE WY) had the largest number ofsited added.154