PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andINTRODUCTIONThis chapter presents modeling results for the portfolio analysis, as well as chronicles the developmentof the portfolios, the associated decision process that guided their formulation, and theselection of a preferred portfolio.Discussion of the portfolio analysis results falls into the following six sections.• Alternative Future and Sensitivity Scenario Results – This section presents the CapacityExpansion Module’s optimized resource investment plans and PVRRs for the alternative futureand sensitivity scenarios. These results constitute the outcome of the resource screeningphase of the IRP modeling effort.• Risk Analysis Portfolio Development and Stochastic Simulation Results – This sectiondescribes the derivation and resource specifications for the risk analysis portfolios, and thenprovides a comparative assessment based on the performance measures described in Chapter6. Creation of fixed investment schedules for wind, demand-side management programs, andcombined heat and power resources, is covered first, followed by a description of the portfoliodesign goals and alternative resource strategies used to formulate them. The section alsopresents findings on a cost-versus-risk exposure tradeoff analysis of the resource strategies.(As discussed in Chapter 6, risk exposure is defined as the upper-tail mean PVRR minus theoverall stochastic mean PVRR.)• Selection of the Preferred Portfolio – This section provides a consolidated view of the portfolioevaluation results to indicate which portfolio is the most desirable after cost, risk, reliability,CO 2 emissions, and state resource policy evolution are considered.• Fuel Diversity Planning – This section describes how fuel source diversity is addressed inthe 2007 Integrated Resource Plan.• Forecasted Fossil Fuel Generator Heat Rate Trend – This section reports the systemaveragefossil fuel generator heat rate trend for the preferred portfolio. This information addressesa new Utah Commission IRP reporting requirement to support the PURPA FuelSources Standard.• Class 2 Demand-side Management Decrement Analysis – This section presents the decrementvalues for Class 2 program evaluations using the preferred portfolio to calculate thesystem benefit.ALTERNATIVE FUTURE AND SENSITIVITY SCENARIO RESULTSAlternative Future Scenario ResultsThis section presents the modeling results and findings for the CEM alternative future studies.As a refresher, Table 7.1 repeats the alternative future specifications outlined in Chapter 6.140