PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andTable 7.44 – Sensitivity Analysis Scenarios for Detailed Simulation Analysis# Name Reference CasePlan to a 12% capacity reserve margin, and include Class 3 DSM RA8 (Consistent with the portfolio developed1sufficient to eliminate ENSfor SAS01)2 Plan to 18% capacity reserve margin SAS02, "Plan to 18% capacity reserve margin"3 Replace a 2012 base load resource with front office transactions Risk Analysis Portfolio RA1Replace a base load pulverized coal resource with a carboncapture-readyIGCC resource4 Risk Analysis Portfolio RA1Substitute a base load resource with CHP and aggregated5dispatchable customer standby generationRisk Analysis Portfolio RA112-Percent Planning Reserve Margin with Class 3 Demand-side Management ProgramsFor this study, 106 megawatts of Class 3 demand side management programs were added to theRA8 risk analysis portfolio in 2009. This DSM quantity reflects the total available to the modelaccording to the base case proxy supply curve results reported by Quantec LLC, and includescapacity for curtailable rate, critical peak pricing, and demand buyback programs for both theeast and west sides of the system. The Class 3 DSM programs were modeled in the PaR moduleas a “take” component during super-peak hours and a “return” component for all other hours.The impact of the Class 3 DSM on portfolio performance was negligible. Compared to RA8,stochastic mean PVRR increased by $11 million, risk exposure decreased by $9 million, andEnergy Not Served decreased by 0.1 percent.Plan to an 18-Percent Planning Reserve MarginPacifiCorp modeled the CEM investment plan that resulted from planning to an 18-percent planningreserve margin (SAS02 study). The SAS02 study reflects the same scenario conditions asRA1 except for the 15-percent planning reserve margin. Relative to RA1, the SAS02 portfolioresulted in a $69 million increase in stochastic mean PVRR, while risk exposure decreased by$346 million. Energy Not Served also decreased by about 16 percent. The PVRR increase wasmainly attributable to the addition of an east SCCT frame resource.Replace a 2012 Base Load Resource with Front Office TransactionsUsing RA1 as the reference case, PacifiCorp replaced the small Utah pulverized coal resourceacquired in 2012 (340 megawatts) with a comparable amount of front office transactions acquiredat the Mona trading location (6x16 product over 3 month summer season) that continuedover the remaining study period.Compared to RA1, the new portfolio’s stochastic mean PVRR was $4 million lower, while therisk exposure increased by $3.4 billion. Energy Not Served increased by nine percent. Based onthis sensitivity study, PacifiCorp concluded that replacing a long-term asset outright with marketpurchases—holding other factors constant—is not a preferred east-side resource strategy giventhe cost-versus-risk tradeoff.Replace a Base Load Pulverized Coal Resource with a Carbon-Capture-Ready IGCCStarting with portfolio RA1, PacifiCorp replaced the 750-megawatt Wyoming supercritical pulverizedcoal resource with an equivalently sized IGCC plant that has minimum carbon capture201