PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andDSM Coal-SCPC Coal-IGCC GasWindNameplateScenario Cumulative Build Amounts (MW): 2007-2018Average 120 2,440 1,420 466 2,433Carbon Dioxide Adder/Coal Cost ScenariosTables 7.10 and 7.11 show the CEM’s resource additions for scenarios that have the low andhigh coal cost assumptions, respectively.The CEM added 1,716 megawatts of supercritical pulverized coal capacity, on average, for thescenarios with low coal cost assumptions. As expected, the CEM built the most coal capacitywhen high gas/electricity prices and high load growth are included as assumptions (CAF1 andCAF3).Table 7.10 – Resource Additions for Scenarios with Low CO 2 Adder/Coal CostsDSM Coal-SCPC Coal-IGCC GasWindNameplateScenario Cumulative Build Amounts (MW): 2007-2018CAF00 150 2,440 500 125 500CAF01 151 2,440 2,002 25 1,100CAF02 78 2,440 500 - 600CAF03 169 2,440 2,510 1,361 3,100CAF08 129 750 - 1,275 0CAF10 68 750 - 1,225 700CAF14 150 750 - 25 500Average 124 1,716 787 577 929With high coal costs (Table 7.11), the model did not add any coal resources unless the scenariowas accompanied by high gas/electricity prices. Base load gas was added in only three of the sixportfolios. Substantial wind capacity was added in all scenarios, with an average of 2,750 megawatts(a 446-megawatt capacity contribution).Table 7.11 – Resource Additions for Scenarios with High CO 2 Adder/Coal CostsDSM Coal-SCPC Coal-IGCC GasWindNameplateScenario Cumulative Build Amounts (MW): 2007-2018CAF04 78 - - 1,823 2,200CAF05 99 - - 125 2,100CAF06 169 - - 3,923 2,400CAF07 58 2,440 500 100 3,600CAF09 64 2,440 500 100 3,100CAF15 198 2,440 2,510 1,211 3,100Average 111 1,220 585 1,214 2,750146
PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andSensitivity Analysis ResultsThis section presents the modeling results for the CEM sensitivity analysis studies. As a refresher,Table 7.12 repeats the sensitivity scenario specifications outlined in Chapter 6.Table 7.12 – Sensitivity Analysis ScenariosSAS# Name Basis01 Plan to 12% capacity reserve marginAlternative Futures Scenario #11("Medium Load Growth")02 Plan to 18% capacity reserve marginAlternative Futures Scenario #11("Medium Load Growth")03 CO 2 adder implementation in 2016Alternative Futures Scenario #11("Medium Load Growth")04 Regional transmission projectAlternative Futures Scenario #11("Medium Load Growth")5-105-155-20CO 2 adder impact on resource selection: test $15, $20, $25 per tonadders (approximately $10, $15, and $20 in 1990 dollars)06 Low wind capital cost07 High wind capital cost08 Low coal price09 High coal price10 Low IGCC capital cost11 High IGCC capital cost121314Add a carbon-capture-ready IGCC to the portfolio (base case forSAS13 and SAS14)Replace the IGCC resource in the SAS12 portfolio with a singlegasifierversionReplace the IGCC resource in the SAS12 portfolio with one thatincludes carbon sequestration15 Plan to "average of super-peak" load16"Favorable Wind Environment" scenario assuming permanent expirationof the renewables PTC beginning in 2008Alternative Futures Scenario #11("Medium Load Growth")Alternative Futures Scenario #11("Medium Load Growth")Alternative Futures Scenario #11("Medium Load Growth")Alternative Futures Scenario #11("Medium Load Growth")Alternative Futures Scenario #11("Medium Load Growth")Alternative Futures Scenario #11("Medium Load Growth")Alternative Futures Scenario #11("Medium Load Growth")Alternative Futures Scenario #11("Medium Load Growth")SAS #12SAS #12Alternative Futures Scenario #11("Medium Load Growth")Alternative Futures Scenario #07("Favorable Wind Environment")Table 7.13 reports the PVRR and total cumulative additions (2007–2018) by resource type forthe 16 sensitivity studies. The wind capacity contribution and average annual front office transactionsacquired for 2007 through 2018 are also shown. The study results are summarized below.147
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PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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