PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 4 – Resource Needs Assessment4. RESOURCE NEEDS ASSESSMENTChapter Highlights On an energy basis, PacifiCorp expects a system-wide average load growth of 2.5 percentper year from 2007 through 2016. Wyoming shows the largest load growth overthe 2007 to 2016 at 5.6 percent average annual rate. Utah load is projected to grow atan average annual rate of about 3 percent, while the other states where the company operates—Oregon,Washington, Idaho, and California—have load growth projected atabout 1 percent. System peak load is expected to grow at a faster rate than overall load due to the changingmix of appliances over time. PacifiCorp’s eastern system peak is expected to continuegrowing faster than its western system peak, with average annual growth rates of3.2 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, over the forecast horizon. PacifiCorp anticipates a system peak resource capacity of 12,131 megawatts for thesummer of 2007. Near-term resource changes include the following:– Conversion of the Currant Creek facility from a single cycle combustion turbine toa combined cycle combustion turbine (June 2006)– The addition of the Lake Side combined cycle combustion turbine (expected commercialoperation in June 2007)– The addition of the Leaning Juniper 1 and Marengo wind projects– Expiration of the 400-megawatt power purchase agreement with TransAlta EnergyMarketing expires in June 2007– Expiration of the 575 megawatt BPA peaking contract in August 2011– Expiration of the West Valley plant lease in May 2008 On both a capacity and energy basis, load and resource balances are calculated usingexisting resource levels, obligations, and reserve requirements. Contract expirationsalso impact these calculations. The company projects a summer peak resource deficit for the PacifiCorp system beginningin 2008 to 2010, depending on the capacity planning reserve margin assumed. Beginningin 2009, the company becomes energy deficient on an annual basis. The PacifiCorp deficits prior to 2011 to 2012 will be met by additional renewables,demand side programs, and market purchases. Then beginning in 2011 to 2012, baseload, intermediate load, or both types of resource additions will be necessary to coverthe widening capacity and energy deficits.61