PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andanalysis portfolio inclusion, programs needed to have been chosen in the medium case scenario(CAF11) or a majority of the other alternative future scenarios, as well as have a capacity thatexceeds 10 megawatts when selected. This combination of criteria is meant to strike a balancebetween a relatively aggressive DSM implementation pattern for the risk analysis portfolios (accountingfor the fact that not all potential system benefits can be readily quantified and capturedin the CEM solution) and constraining the entire set of CEM options to a reasonable number.For the medium case scenario, the CEM chose the following programs, megawatt quantities (asmeasured at the customer meter), and installation years:● East-side summer direct load control – 48 megawatts in 2013● West-side summer direct load control – 8 megawatts in 2013● East-side commercial/industrial direct load control – 2 megawatts in 2013● East-side scheduled irrigation – 15 megawatts in 2012● West-side scheduled irrigation – 32 megawatts in 2012The only resources that the CEM selected for the majority of alternative future scenarios werethe east-side and west-side scheduled irrigation programs. The CEM selected the east-side programin 11 out of 16 scenarios, while the west-side program was selected in 10 out of 16 scenarios.Figures 7.6 and 7.7 show the number of scenarios in which program types were selected bythe CEM and the average megawatts for all scenarios, respectively.Regarding the CEM’s selection of program installation dates, 2012 and 2013 were the mostcommon across the alternative future scenarios. Only under the high-cost bookend scenario(CAF15) are programs selected for implementation earlier than 2010. For this scenario, severalprograms are added in 2008, such as east-side scheduled irrigation and the three east-side directload control programs (summer, winter, and commercial/industrial).Figure 7.6 – Class 1 DSM Selection Frequency for Alternative Future Scenarios, 2007-20161210Frequency (N=16)86420East Sch.IrrigationWest Sch.IrrigationEast DLCSummerEast DLCC&IEast DLCWinterWest DLCSummerEastThermalStorageWest DLCSummerWest DLCC&IWestThermalStorage156
PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andFigure 7.7 – Class 1 DSM Average Megawatts for Alternative Future Scenarios, 2007-201625Average MW Per Program20151050East Sch.IrrigationWest Sch.IrrigationEast DLCSummerEast DLCC&IEast DLCWinterWest DLCSummerEastThermalStorageWest DLCSummerWest DLCC&IWestThermalStorageBased on these CEM results, and assuming a generic two or three-year phase-in period, Table7.15 shows the Class 1 DSM resource addition schedule for each of the risk analysis portfolios. 54Table 7.15 – Class 1 DSM Cumulative Resource Additions for Candidate PortfoliosClass 1 DSM Program LocationAnnual Cumulative Megawatt Additions(at the customer meter)2010 2011 2012 2013Summer Direct Load Control East 16 32 48Irrigation Control East 8 15Irrigation Control West 11 21 32Combined Heat and Power ResourcesA fixed megawatt amount of combined heat and power (CHP) resources were included in all riskanalysis portfolios based on a review of CHP addition patterns for the alternative future scenarios.Figure 7.8 shows the megawatts selected in each of the scenarios by location. (Note that theCHP resource included in the CEM was the 25-megawatt gas-fired topping cycle unit.) Themost common resource selection pattern was 125 megawatts (100 megawatts installed in thewest side and 25 megawatts installed in the east side), which occurred for seven of the 16 scenarios.The average quantity selected for all scenarios was 90 megawatts. For 11 out of the 16 scenarios,the CHP capacity was added in 2012. Based on these results, PacifiCorp chose a CHPresource investment schedule consisting of three 25-megawatt CHP units in the west in 2012 andone 25-megawatt CHP facility in the east control area in 2012.54 Selection of DSM programs or any other resource type for the candidate portfolios should not be construed asmeaning that PacifiCorp is limiting program procurement in any way. Similarly, the resource additions schedule,including the phase-in period, is not indicative of the pace of actual program implementation once PacifiCorp identifiescost-effective programs through its procurement process.157
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PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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