PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 1 – Executive SummaryPacifiCorp’s planning process is further impacted by the rapid evolution of state-specific resourcepolicies that place, or are expected to place, constraints on PacifiCorp’s resource selectiondecisions, and disparate state interests that complicate the company’s ability to address state IRPrequirements to the satisfaction of all stakeholders.RESOURCE NEEDS ASSESSMENTThe total net control area load forecast used in this IRP reflects PacifiCorp’s forecasts of loadsgrowing at an average rate of 2.4 percent annually from 2007 to 2016, which is slightly fasterthan the average annual historical growth rate (See Table 1.1). The eastern portion of the Pacifi-Corp system continues to grow faster than the western system, with an average annual energygrowth rate of 3.2 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, over the forecast horizon.Table 1.1 – Historical and Forecasted Average Energy Growth Rates for LoadAverage AnnualGrowth Rate Total OR WA WY CA UT ID1995-2005 1.6% 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 3.0% 1.3%2007-2016 2.4% 0.6% 1.3% 5.6% 1.1% 2.7% 1.0%On both a capacity and energy basis, load and resource balances are calculated using existingresource levels, obligations and reserve requirements. Based on load and resource balance calculations,the company projects a summer peak resource deficit for the PacifiCorp system beginningin 2008 to 2010, depending on the capacity planning reserve margin assumed. Table 1.2shows the annual capacity position (megawatt resource surplus or deficit) for the system using a12 percent and 15 percent planning reserve margin, while Figure 1.1 shows the correspondingannual resource and obligation levels.Table 1.2 – Capacity System Position for 12% and 15% Planning Reserve MarginSystemPosition (MW) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201612% PRM 665 113 73 (791) (1,038) (2,446) (2,563) (2,794) (2,842) (3,171)15% PRM 415 (147) (188) (1,073) (1,327) (2,768) (2,890) (3,126) (3,176) (3,513)The PacifiCorp deficits prior to 2011 to 2012 will be met by additional renewables, demand-sideprograms, and market purchases. The company will consider other options during this timeframe if they are cost-effective and provide other system benefits. This could include accelerationof a natural gas plant to complement the accelerated and expanded acquisition of renewablewind facilities. On an average annual energy basis, the system becomes deficient beginning in2009 (Figure 1.2), based on a 12 percent planning reserve margin. To address these wideningdeficits in a cost-effective and risk-informed manner, a mix of resource types is anticipated.3