PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andTable 7.36 – Transmission Resource Investment Schedule for All Group 2 PortfoliosTransfer Capability, MegawattsResource 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016East Path C Upgrade: Borah to Path-C South to Utah North 300Utah - Desert Southwest (Includes Mona - Oquirrh) 600Mona - Utah North 400Craig-Hayden to Park City 176Miners - Jim Bridger - Terminal 600Jim Bridger - Terminal 500West Walla Walla - Yakima 400West Main - Walla Walla 630Total Annual Additions - - - 700 630 1,776 - 500 - -STOCHASTIC SIMULATION RESULTSThe five Group 2 risk analysis portfolios were run in stochastic simulation mode to determinecost, risk, reliability, and emission performance results. The tables and charts below show howthe portfolios compare to one another on the basis of these results.Stochastic Mean CostTable 7.37 compares the stochastic mean PVRR for each portfolio across the CO 2 adder cases, aswell as by CO 2 compliance strategy (per-ton CO 2 tax and cap-and-trade). Portfolio RA14 (twoeast CCCTs) has the lowest stochastic cost at each adder level. RA17 (no east CCCTs) has thehighest cost under the $0, $8, $15, and $38 adder levels, while RA13 has the highest cost underthe $61 adder. The average cost deviation among the portfolios is about $200 million for the $0adder case, and increases to over $600 million at the $61 adder level.Table 7.37 – Stochastic Mean PVRR by CO 2 Adder CaseTax Strategy (Million $)$0 Adder $8 Adder $15 Adder $38 Adder $61 AdderID (2008$) (2008$) (2008$) (2008$) (2008$) Average RankRA13 22,917 26,930 29,002 36,161 43,368 31,676 5RA14 22,570 26,478 28,401 35,008 41,634 30,818 1RA15 22,631 26,551 28,482 35,139 41,820 30,925 3RA16 22,645 26,544 28,454 35,021 41,854 30,850 2RA17 22,737 26,669 28,616 35,351 42,137 31,102 4Cap & Trade (Million $)$0 Adder $8 Adder $15 Adder $38 Adder $61 AdderID (2008$) (2008$) (2008$) (2008$) (2008$) Average RankRA13 21,606 22,010 22,282 22,673 22,716 22,257 5RA14 21,260 21,559 21,682 21,521 20,983 21,401 1RA15 21,322 21,632 21,763 21,652 21,168 21,507 3RA16 21,336 21,625 21,736 21,534 20,933 21,433 2RA17 21,427 21,750 21,897 21,864 21,486 21,685 4186