PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling andTable 7.13 – Sensitivity Analysis Scenario PVRR and Cumulative Additions, 2007-2018Study PVRRSAS01 $ 24,400 12% 55 106 161 125 125 500 2,440 1,100 223 4,326 865 969SAS02 $ 24,983 18% 55 106 161 100 634 734 500 2,440 1,700 326 5,535 936 1,104SAS03 $ 22,673 15% 47 106 153 125 302 427 500 2,440 1,500 291 5,020 942 1,083SAS04 $ 24,182 15% 113 106 219 125 125 997 2,440 2,400 409 6,181 896 1,031SAS05-10 $ 28,551 15% 103 106 209 602 602 125 634 1,361 500 1,840 2,500 406 6,410 872 1,003SAS05-15 $ 32,390 15% 127 106 233 602 602 125 634 1,361 500 1,090 3,100 514 6,284 935 1,075SAS05-20 $ 36,073 15% 143 106 249 1,150 1,150 125 720 1,995 750 3,100 514 6,094 906 1,042SAS06 $ 24,282 15% 55 106 161 125 634 759 500 2,440 2,600 422 6,460 806 927SAS07 $ 24,836 15% 47 82 129 100 634 734 997 2,440 700 163 5,000 897 1,031SAS08 $ 24,401 15% 95 103 198 125 302 427 500 2,440 1,300 253 4,865 920 1,058SAS09 $ 24,980 15% 47 103 150 125 302 427 500 2,440 1,500 300 5,017 890 1,023SAS10 $ 24,559 15% 47 103 150 125 332 457 997 2,440 1,100 223 5,144 889 1,023SAS11 $ 24,660 15% 103 106 209 125 634 759 500 2,440 1,800 334 5,708 922 1,060SAS12 $ 24,976 15% 103 106 209 100 332 432 1,250 2,440 1,000 196 5,331 915 1,052SAS13 $ 24,980 15% 47 106 153 100 302 402 1,250 2,440 800 165 5,045 828 953SAS14 $ 25,521 15% 95 106 201 100 332 432 1,250 2,440 1,000 196 5,323 848 975SAS15 $ 24,412 15% 105 106 211 125 332 457 500 2,440 1,700 323 5,308 803 924SAS16 $ 35,049 15% 47 26 73 75 75 500 2,440 3,500 580 6,588 649 727Planning Reserve MarginDSM - Class 1DSM - Class 3DSM-TotalGas-CCCT-1x1Gas-CCCT-2x1Gas-CCCTGas-CHPGas-FrameGas-TotalCoal - IGCCCoal - SCPCNameplate WindWind CapacityContributionTotal NameplateFOT - Avg 2007-2018Plus PRMFOT - Avg 2007-2018Alternative planning reserve margins (SAS01 and SAS02)Allowing the CEM to optimize to alternative planning reserve margins, 12% and 18%, had thefollowing impacts:• The PVRR was lowest for the 15% PRM base case portfolio (CAF11); the cost differencebetween the 15% PRM portfolio and 18% PRM was $6.9 billion, while the difference betweenthe 12% PRM portfolio and the 15% PRM portfolio was $6.3 billion.• There was no difference in the amount of supercritical pulverized coal or IGCC capacityamong the portfolios• None of the portfolios included CCCT capacity; SCCT capacity was added for 15% and 18%PRM portfolios (both at 634 megawatts)• The 12% PRM portfolio had no base load gas resources, but included CHP• Relative to the 12% PRM portfolio, the 15% PRM portfolio had more wind (700 megawatts)and more front office transactions• Relative to the 15% PRM portfolio, the 18% PRM portfolio had more front office transactionsand slightly less wind and DSMCO 2 adder implementation in 2016, compared to 2012 for the base case portfolioMoving back the start of CO 2 regulation from 2012 to 2016 had the following impacts on thebase case portfolio:• The PVRR decreased by $1.9 billion• The resulting portfolio had less Class 1 DSM, less SCCT capacity, less wind, and more frontoffice transactionsInclusion of the regional transmission project 52• The project resulted in a $424 million decrease in PVRR relative to the base case portfolio52 The project consisted of new 1,500 MW capacity lines from Wyoming to the SP15 transmission zone in California,and from Utah to NP15.148
PacifiCorp – 2007 IRPChapter 7 – Modeling and• Changes to the resource mix included elimination of all SCCT capacity, the addition of anIGCC unit, more wind, and a small increase in front office transactionsResource mix impact of increasing the CO 2 adderIncreasing the CO 2 adder in a step-wise fashion for the base case portfolios had the followingimpacts:• From $8 to $15: The CEM removed the Utah SCPC resource (600 megawatts), and added aCCCT and 700 megawatts of additional wind; PVRR increased by $3.9 billion• From $15 to $20: The CEM removed a Wyoming SCPC (750 megawatts), and added 600megawatts of additional wind, 24 megawatts of Class 3 DSM, and additional front officetransactions (63 average annual megawatts); PVRR increased by another $3.8 billion• From $20 to $25: The CEM removed the small Utah SCPC and the west IGCC (500 megawatts),and added another east CCCT as well as an intercooled aero SCCT; in addition, themodel added 16 megawatts of Class 1 DSM, but decreased front office transactions by averageannual 29 megawatts; PVRR increased by another $3.7 billionLow and high wind capital costLowering the wind capital cost by 10% had the following effects relative to the base case portfolio:• The CEM added 800 megawatts of wind• The PVRR decreased by $800 million• Class 1 DSM is reduced by 50 megawatts• Front office transactions are reduced by an average annual 70 megawattsIncreasing the wind capital cost by 11% had the following effects relative to the base case portfolio:• The CEM removed 1,100 megawatts of wind capacity• An east IGCC resource was added (497 megawatts)• The PVRR increases by $231 million• Front office transactions increased by an average annual 21 megawatts• Class 1 DSM is reduced by 50 megawatts, apparently displaced by the other resource additionsLow and high commodity coal pricesLowering the coal price for new coal resources had the following effects relative to the base caseportfolio:• The PVRR decreases by $204 million• The CEM removed the west SCCT (332 megawatts) and 500 megawatts of wind (90 megawattscapacity contribution)• Front office transaction were increased by an average annual 44 megawatts, while DSM decreasesby 13 megawattsRaising the coal price for new coal resources has the following effects relative to the base caseportfolio:149
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PacifiCorp 2007 Integrated Resource Plan (May 30, 2007)

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