ConflictBarometer_2015

THE AMERICAS
The overall number of conflicts in the Americas increased by three to a total of 53. Three new conflicts broke out and
one conflict ended this year. A violent internal conflict involving indigenous groups of the Miskito erupted in Nicaragua.
Clashes between Miskito groups and so-called colonos led to various deaths and the displacement of around 1,000 people
in September [→ Nicaragua (indigenous groups)].
The two interstate conflicts between Venezuela and its neighbors reached the intensity of non-violent crises. A new conflict
was constituted as a non-violent crisis when Venezuela started deporting Colombian nationals from the border area after
alleged Colombian paramilitaries had shot and injured Venezuelan soldiers in August. The closure of the border and aerial
incursions into Colombian airspace by Venezuelan military aircraft led to heightened diplomatic tensions and to both
countries recalling their respective ambassadors [→ Venezuela Colombia (border security)]. Venezuela also engaged in
a non-violent crisis with its eastern neighbor Guyana. After claiming territory west of the Essequibo river and maritime
areas, Venezuela was accused of threatening regional security and impeding economic development and oil explorations
off Guyana's coast [→ Venezuela Guyana]. Adding to a total of 16 interstate conflicts, the region once again showed the
highest percentage of this conflict type.
In contrast to last year, only the conflict between Mexico and the US involved violence, with US Border Patrol agents shooting
and killing a Mexican national near a border crossing in California. Last year's violent interstate conflicts between Guatemala
and Belize, on the one hand, and Honduras and El Salvador, on the other, de-escalated to non-violent crises. The 55-year
old conflict between the US and Cuba showed an easing of tensions when presidents Barack Obama and Raúl Castro met in
Panama; however, economic and financial sanctions remained in place.
The territorial dispute between Nicaragua and Costa Rica over the San Juan river and the river island Isla Calero / Harbor
Head ended after both sides had accepted a final ICJ ruling which determined Costa Rica's sovereignty over the disputed
islands and Nicaragua's right of free navigation.
The conflict between drug cartels, vigilante groups, and the Mexican government remained the region's sole war. Security
forces growingly skirmished with Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación, whose members reacted with increased violence to the
launch of ''Operation Jalisco in May [→ Mexico (drug cartels)]. Authorities especially considered the shooting down of an
army helicopter by the cartel the same month a sign of growing militarization of the conflict. The repeated outbreak of Joaquin
''El Chapo Guzmán Loera, the most wanted drug cartel leader and head of the Sinaloa Cartel, from a high-security prison in
July received worldwide media attention. In the limited war pertaining cartel infighting, almost all major drug cartels faced
further fragmentation. Besides the states of Guerrero and Tamaulipas, turf wars particularly flared up in Baja California state
due to fighting between rivaling factions of the Sinaloa and the Tijuana cartels [→ Mexico (inter-cartel violence, paramilitary
groups)].
This year, the conflict between the left-wing group FARC and the Colombian government was marked by both escalations and
a significant decrease in violence, with the conflict parties achieving several breakthroughs at the negotiation table in Cuba.
In April, FARC killed ten state soldiers in Cauca department, prompting the president to order the resumption of airstrikes
against the group, which had previously been halted for a month. Dozens of FARC members were killed in operations of state
forces in April, May, and June. Throughout the year, at least 156 people died in this conflict. FARC declared a new unilateral
ceasefire in July which subsequently led to a notable reduction of violent conflict measures. In Cuba, negotiators made
significant advances towards an eventual peace accord by reaching preliminary agreements for example on transitional
justice.
The conflict between different neo-paramilitary groups, ELN, and FARC continued to be associated with high homicide
rates in some regions and high displacement figures. A hotspot for violence was Chocó department where traditionally
FARC-controlled areas were contested by Los Urabeños and the two left-wing groups [→ Colombia (inter-cartel violence,
neo-paramilitary groups, left-wing militants)]. In the fight against the neo-paramilitary groups, the government set a precedent
by conducting an aerial bombardment against a neo-paramilitary group for the first time. Twelve members of Los Urabeños
died in an airstrike against a camp where they had allegedly been meeting ELN members. On December 18, the Attorney
General signed a guideline deeming legal the bombardment of these groups the government called ''Criminal Groups [→
Colombia (neo-paramilitary groups, drug cartels)]. In total, at least 91,000 people registered as IDPs in Colombia by the end
of the year.
The conflict over subnational predominance in El Salvador between the main criminal gangs, namely the Mara Salvatrucha
and the Barrio 18, and the government reached the intensity level of a limited war. Rising numbers of attacks on security
forces and civilians, inter-gang violence, and multiple homicides deteriorated the country's security situation in 2015.
Throughout the year, the government engaged in more resolute and confrontational security policies against gang activities,
thereby setting a de-facto end to the 2012-brokered gang truce. In August, the country's Supreme Court further criminalized
both gangs by officially declaring them terrorist groups and prosecuting their activities under the act of terrorism. The US
Treasury Department had already designated the Mara Salvatrucha as a transnational criminal organization previously in
2012.
With 103 murders per 100,000 inhabitants and 6,650 homicides committed, El Salvador was the country with the highest
murder rate worldwide in 2015.
Although drawing from different sources about gang involvement in the crimes, both the government and the UNHCR
attributed a high percentage of the murders and displacement to gang violence.
In the context of the federal legislative, state, and municipal midterm elections, the opposition conflict in Mexico escalated
to a violent crisis. National and international media reported between six and 23 political murders in the run-up to the
election on June 7, considered the most violent one in recent history [→ Mexico (opposition)]. Elections in Venezuela
were accompanied by violence and intimidations against opposition candidates. The ruling PSUV of Nicolas Maduro lost its
majority in parliament and accepted defeat [→ Venezuela (opposition)]. In Haiti, legislative elections and the first round
of presidential elections took place on August 9 and October 25 respectively, both events being accompanied by violent
incidents [→ Haiti (opposition)].
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