ConflictBarometer_2015

CONFLICT ISSUES
violent autonomy conflicts could be observed. The conflict
between the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the government
of Turkey escalated to war level after both parties
had ended the 2013 ceasefire [→ Turkey (PKK)]. In Iran, the
conflict between the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan and the
government escalated to a violent level, while Sunni armed
groups continued to engage in violent attacks on government
forces, with some them allegedly attempting to join the
so-called Islamic State [→ Iran (PJAK / Kurdish Areas); Iran
(Jundallah et al. / Sistan Baluchistan); Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)].
Conflicts over autonomy of Kurds in Syria and Yemeni tribes
in the Ma'rib region continued to be fought on a violent level
[→ Syria (Kurdish groups); Yemen (tribes / Ma'rib)]. The autonomy
conflict between Kabylia Berbers and the Algerian government
turned non-violent [→ Algeria (Berbers / Kabylia)].
Furthermore, the formerly non-violent crisis between Cyrenaica
federalists and the Libyan government de-escalated to
a dispute [→ Libya (Federalists / Cyrenaica)]. The dispute
between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the central
government of Iraq continued due to tensions over the control
of the oil trade with Turkey and the status of Kirkuk [→
Iraq (Kurdistan Regional Government)]. (jli, lxl, cwl, emh)
SUBNATIONAL PREDOMINANCE
In 2015, there were 87 conflicts attributed to the item subnational
predominance, defined as the attainment of the
de facto control of a territory or population. Of those, 34
conflicts also involved claims for natural resources, making
subnational predominance and resources the most common
item combination (34/87). In 37 cases, actors fought solely
over the de facto control of a territory or population. Conflicts
over subnational predominance tended to be comparatively
more violent than conflicts that revolved around other conflict
issues. In total, 24 conflicts were conducted on a highly
violent level, including six wars. With 13 conflicts, the region
of Sub-Saharan Africa saw the highest number of wars
and limited wars over subnational predominance in 2015,
followed by the Americas with six highly violent conflicts.
In Asia and Oceania, approx. a quarter of all conflicts revolved
around subnational predominance (31/126), of which
23 were conducted violently. The Philippines saw the only
war over subnational predominance in the region [→ Philippines
(BIFM, BIFF MILF, government)]. The Bangsamoro
Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) and government forces frequently
clashed throughout the year, resulting in at least 250
deaths. Of the 23 violent conflicts over subnational predominance,
six also included the claim for natural resources. In
these cases, the importance of each item varied from predominantly
resource-related conflicts to those with actors
predominantly aiming at subnational predominance.
Out of the 97 conflicts observed in Sub-Saharan Africa in
2015, almost a third were related to subnational predominance
(30/97). In total, 25 of these were fought violently,
among them ten limited and three full-scale wars. In Nigeria,
farmers appealed to their right to use their ancestor's farmland
in the context of increasing desertification, while Fulani
nomads claimed the areas as grazing areas for their cattle [→
Nigeria (farmers pastoralists)]. Two wars between militias
attached to local communities continued in Sudan and South
Sudan [→ Sudan (inter-communual violence); South Sudan
(inter-communal violence)]. Ten highly violent conflicts over
local de facto control also included the claim for natural resources
(10/13).
In the Americas, twelve out of 53 conflicts revolved around
subnational predominance. All conflicts were violent, with
six being highly violent, including one war between drug cartels
and the Mexican government [→ Mexico (drug cartels)].
Furthermore, in nine cases, non-state actors sought control of
natural resources. The only three conflicts also involving the
item system/ideology were observed in Colombia and Peru
[→ Colombia (FARC); Colombia (ELN); Peru (Shining Path)].
A total of twelve out of 71 conflicts in the Middle East
and Maghreb region comprised the item subnational predominance,
of which only the conflict between al-Fatah and
Hamas was carried out non-violently [→ Israel (al-Fatah
Hamas)]. The only war over subnational predominance in the
region was observed in the Yemen [→ Yemen, Saudi Arabia
(al-Houthi)]. Al-Houthi militants expelled the government of
President Abed Rabbo Mansur Hadi from the country, engaging
in heavy fighting with pro-government troops, local
militias, and a Saudi-led military coalition in the Yemen and
at the border to Saudi Arabia.
In Europe, only two out of 62 conflicts revolved around subnational
predominance [→ Bosnia and Herzegovina (Islamist
militant groups); Serbia (Kosovo opposition)]. In both cases,
actors sought local de facto control non-violently, also contesting
the orientation of the respective political system. (iro,
jkr)
NATURAL RESOURCES
In 2015, a total of 98 conflicts revolved around the ownership
of natural resources and raw materials for actual usage
or trade therewith. The most resource-related conflicts took
place in the Americas, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia and Oceania,
with the number of cases ranging from 26 to 28. In Europe
(8) and the Middle East and Maghreb (9), the overall number
was significantly lower. In relation to the total number of
conflicts by regions, actors contested resources in about half
of the conflicts in the Americas and in nearly one third of the
conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa, while natural resources were
a conflict issue in less than a fifth of all conflicts in the other
three regions.
The majority of conflicts were carried out violently with a total
of 25 conflicts being highly violent, of which nine reached
the level of war. The region most prone to highly violent conflicts
over resources was Sub-Saharan Africa (13), followed
by the Americas (5), Asia and Oceania (4), the Middle East and
Maghreb (2), and lastly Europe with only one violent conflict
over the Donbas-region in Ukraine. On average, the most
violent conflicts were those in which actors combined their
claim for resources with the de facto control of territory or
population. This was followed by resource conflicts linked to
the aim of changing the orientation of a political system.
In total, more than one fourth of all interstate conflicts (20/74)
in 2015 involved the claim for resources, in the majority of
which actors also aimed at changing the course of an international
border, thereby making resources and territory
the most prevalent combination of conflict items in interstate
conflicts. Only three interstate conflicts were violent,
however, none of them highly violent. Pakistan and India
competed over the usage of the Indus river water, similarly
Syria and Israel continued to rival over the status of the Golan
Heights and its water resources, and Sudan and South Sudan
contended for the oil-rich border region of Abyei.
In terms of specific resources, conflicts over cattle were
confined to Sub-Saharan Africa only, with all of them being
carried out highly violently. Similarly, around 90 percent
of conflicts related to plant-based drugs were violent, with
approx. half of them being highly violent. Of a total of 40
conflicts over hydrocarbons, eight were highly violent with
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