ConflictBarometer_2015

GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA
In 2015, the global number of political conflicts
remained constant at 409, of which 223 were
conducted on a violent level. The number of full-scale
wars remained 19, while the number of limited wars
decreased by one to 24. A total of 186 non-violent
conflicts were counted, marking an increase by one
compared to the previous year. The number of nonviolent
crises increased by one to a total of 89, while the
number of disputes remained constant at 97.
WARS
Compared to 2014, three conflicts escalated to war level.
PKK and the Turkish government ended a two-year-long
ceasefire, engaging in heavy fighting in the Eastern provinces
of Turkey [→ Turkey (PKK)]. In the Philippines, fighting
between BIFF, on the one hand, and the government and
MILF, on the other, escalated to a full-scale war when the
government launched a large-scale offensive against BIFF [→
Philippines (BIFM, BIFF – MILF, government)]. Fighting
resulted in at least 250 deaths and tens of thousands of
people displaced. Lastly, intercommunal violence over
subnational predominance, cattle, and arable land in South
Sudan escalated to a war in the context of the proliferation of
weapons and increasing instability in the country [→ South
Sudan (intercommunal violence)].
A total of 16 conflicts continued at war level. Nine wars were
observed in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Sudan, the war in Darfur
continued in its 14th consecutive year, SPLMA-North and the
government engaged in heavy fighting and intercommunal
fighting continued to cause significant numbers of casualties
[→ Sudan (Darfur)]. In Somalia, al-Shabaab lost substantial
parts of its previously controlled territory, especially in the
South, due to the advances of AMISOM and the Somali
National Army [→ Somalia, Kenya (al-Shabaab)]. In the Central
African Republic, the first half of the year was marked by
several rounds of negotiations between ex-Séléka groups,
Anti-Balaka groups, and the in-terim government, while
violence re-escalated in September after the killing of a
Muslim moto driver [→ Central African Republic (Anti-Balaka
– ex-Séléka)].
Around Lake Chad, Boko Haram extended its area of
operation and changed its tactics from control of territory to
hit-and-run attacks, increasingly abusing women and girls as
suicide bombers [→ Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Niger (Boko
Haram)]. At least 12,000 peo-ple were killed throughout the
year and 2.4 million people remained displaced.
Furthermore, pastoralists and farmers continued to fight over
arable land and cattle in the Middle Belt [→ Nigeria (farmers –
pastoralists)]. As desertification in the Sahelian Zone reduced
fertile grounds, farmers appealed to their right to use their
ancestor's farmland, while Fulani nomads claimed the
territory as grazing areas for their cattle.
The Middle East and Maghreb witnessed six wars. Several
governments, supported by an international coalition, continued
to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Syria, Iraq, and
several other countries in the region. The network extended
operations to Afghanistan, France, and Bangladesh, among
others, and consolidated its control over areas in most states
of the Maghreb. Due to a methodological revision, the
conflict interactions directly related to IS were extracted from
the conflicts Syria (opposition), Syria (inter-opposition
violence), Syria (NC, Islamist groups – KSC / Kurdish regions),
Iraq (IS et al.), Afghanistan (Taliban et al.), Algeria (AQIM et al.),
Egypt (Islamist groups / Sinai Peninsula), Libya (opposition
groups), Tunisia (AQIM et al.), Yemen (AQAP - al-Houthi
rebels) to form one transnational conflict [→ Syria, Iraq et al.
(IS)].
13
The death toll in the Syrian opposition conflict rose to
approx. 250,000 since the beginning of the conflict in March
2011, with more than 50,000 fatalities in 2015 alone. As of
December, at least 4.3 million people sought refuge in
neighboring countries and 6.6 million were internally
displaced. On December 18, the UNSC unanimously adopted
Resolution 2254 outlining a road map for a ceasefire and a
peace process. In terms of civilian fatalities, 2015 was the
most fatal year in the war between the Taliban and the
Afghan government since 2002 with at least 3,545 dead
civilians by December 31 [→ Afghanistan (Taliban et al.)].
Another significant development in Afghanistan was the
emergence of IS. Throughout the year, IS engaged in fighting
with the Afghan National Army, NATO forces, and the Taliban
mostly in Farah and Nangarhar provinces [→ Syria, Iraq et al.
(IS)]. The war between al-Houthis and the government of the
Yemen continued with Saudi Arabia significantly extending
its engagement in the Yemen [→ Yemen, Saudi Arabia (al-
Houthi)].
The war in Libya continued with ongoing confrontations
between the House of Representatives and its
internationally recognized government based in Tobruk and
al-Bayda, one the one hand, and the Tripoli-based General
National Congress on the other [→ Libya (opposition)].
Despite their participation in UN-led peace talks, both
parliaments remained internally split over the initiative to
form a unity government while launching an inter-Libyan
dialog and signing a declaration of principles on December
5. The war between Islamist groups and the Pakistani
government left at least 3,000 people dead, with USoperated
drone strikes killing at least 60 militants of various
networks [→ Pakistan (Islamist militant groups)].
Constituting the Americas' sole full-scale war, the conflict
between drug cartels and the Mexican government saw an
increase in violence in Jalisco compared to the previous year
[→ Mexico (drug cartels)]. After several attacks on police officers
carried out by the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación the
government launched ''Operation Jalisco", deploying 6,000
military forces to the state.
Europe's sole highly violent conflict, namely the war in
Ukraine over the control of the Donbas region between
sepa-ratists and the government, continued with more than
4,000 fatalities in 2015 [→ Ukraine (Donbas)]. Despite
several rounds of talks to reach a ceasefire, violence
continued.
LIMITED WARS
In 2015, seven conflicts escalated to a limited war, while two
former wars de-escalated by one level. In Sub-Saharan
Africa, eight limited wars were observed in the DR Congo.
The fight between the Democratic Forces for the Liberation
of Rwanda and the government escalated to a highly violent
level after the military and MONUSCO launched a large-scale
offensive against the militants [→ DR Congo, Rwanda
(FDLR)]. In contrast, violence related to the Allied Democratic
Forces de-escalated to a limited war [→ DR Congo, Uganda
(ADF)]. In Mali, various Islamist groups continued to fight the
govern-ment [→ Mali (Islamist groups)]. While in 2014 the
militants mostly launched attacks in remote northern areas,
2015 was marked by an extension of violence towards the
south of the country. For the first time, Islamists conducted
attacks along the borders with Burkina Faso and Côte
d'Ivoire as well as in the capital Bamako. The Burundian
opposition conflict escalated to a limited war in the context
of President Pierre Nkurunziza's bid for a third term in office
[→ Burundi (opposition)].