ConflictBarometer_2015

ASIA AND OCEANIA
Approx. 500 residents fled the area.
Nevertheless, efforts to reach the nationwide ceasefire
agreement between the government and various ethnic
armed groups, led by the United Nationalities Federal Council
(UNFC), continued [→ Myanmar (opposition)]. The government
set the precondition of a formerly signed bilateral
ceasefire agreement in order to acknowledge ethnic armed
groups as potential signatories to a future nationwide ceasefire
agreement. KIA had not yet signed such a deal but was
still recognized by the government as potential signatory.
On May 4, President Thein Sein announced that the government
was ready to sign the peace agreement draft that was
endorsed on March 30. However, on May 6, rebel leaders
called on the government to prove its commitment to peace
through constitutional reforms regarding autonomy rights of
ethnic groups and by stopping military operations in Kachin,
Ta'ang, Kokang, and Arakan territories. They warned that the
clashes undermined trust and endangered the peace deal. On
September 30, seven ethnic armed groups decided to sign
the ceasefire agreement with the government on October
15. However, the rest of the armed groups, including KIO and
KIA, decided to abstain claiming that not all ethnic armed
groups were involved. On October 8, the Restoration Council
of Shan State decided to join the other seven armed groups
willing to sign the ceasefire agreement. One week later, they
signed the deal after almost two years of negotiations. On
November 1, the United Wa State Army hosted a summit
for twelve non-signatory ethnic armed groups in Panghsang,
the capital of the Wa Special Region. They discussed their
potential engagement with the new government after the
country's general elections seven days later. On December
15, the newly-created Union Political Dialogue Joint
Committee signed a draft framework for political dialogue
between the government and the eight signatory ethnic
groups in Naypyidaw. On December 18, President Thein
Sein announced that the political dialogue between ethnic
group signatories and the government would commence on
01/12/16. nwu
MYANMAR (MNDAA / SHAN STATE)
Intensity: 4 | Change: | Start: 1989
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
MNDAA vs. government
subnational predominance, resources
The conflict over subnational predominance in the Kokang
region in Myanmar's Kokang Special Region 1 in Shan state
between the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army
(MNDAA) supported by the Ta'ang National Liberation Army
(TNLA), on the one hand, and the government, on the other,
escalated to a limited war.
After the MNDAA had completely split from the Communist
Party of Burma in 1989, the armed group aimed at regaining
power over the Special Region 1 of Kokang claiming to fight
for the rights of ethnic Kokang. Additionally, MNDAA focused
on trafficking drugs such as heroin and opium at the border
to China. In 2009, following the withdrawal of its leader, Peng
Jiasheng, to China, MNDAA largely withdrew from Kokang
to neighboring Yunnan Province, China, after heavy clashes
with the Burmese armed forces Tatmadaw. However, over
the course of the year, MNDAA, supported by TNLA forces,
clashed anew with Tatmadaw especially during February and
May, leaving at least 750 people dead, 450 injured, and
80,000 displaced.
During the fighting, heavy weapons such as fighter jets and
military helicopters were used and thousands of soldiers and
MNDAA fighters involved. From February 9 to 10, fighting
erupted between MNDAA and government troops in the
regional capital of Kokang, Laukkai, and between MNDAA
and TNLA, on the one hand, and the armed forces, on the
other, in Chin Shwe Haw town, Shan. The fighting included
heavy exchange of gunfire, artillery shelling, and at least five
rounds of airstrikes by Tatmadaw using MiG-29 fighter jets
and MiG-35 helicopters, killing at least three soldiers, four
MNDAA members, and some TNLA members and wounded
several combatants. According to both local residents and
TNLA, more government troops were deployed to Laukkai in
the course of the clashes. Approx. 20,000 local residents
and Chinese traders fled the region. On February 11, fighting
between TNLA troops and Tatmadaw erupted in four areas
near Laukkai. On the same day, the secretary-general of
MNDAA stated that the group was confronting the military
which deployed more troops and equipment into the area
including attack helicopters and fighter jets. Reportedly, on
February 13, numerous clashes between MNDAA and the
military occurred in the Laukkai area, leaving 47 soldiers
and at least 3 MNDAA members dead and 81 injured. The
MNDAA used heavy weapons including anti-aircraft machine
guns. Between February 9 and 16, approx. 5,000 people
fled their homes due to the fighting. After the clashes did
not stop within the following days, the government declared
a state of emergency and brought martial law into effect in
Kokang. Around February 20, Tatmadaw established control
in Laukkai, with only a limited number of MNDAA and
affiliated fighters remaining in town. After the fighting had
spread to other parts of Shan between February 22 and 25,
Tatmadaw targeted positions of the allied MNDAA, TNLA,
and Arakan Army troops in Laukkai and surroundings until
November, killing at least another 200 combatants, injuring
150, and displacing thousands internally as well as causing
heavy infrastructural damage. On November 17, the government
lifted martial law in Kokang. Nevertheless, minor
fighting continued.
Despite the fighting, the leader of the MNDAA sent an open
letter to President Thein Sein on February 18 appealing for
recognition of MNDAA, more extensive rights for the ethnic
Chinese Kokang minority and the commencement of talks
in order to restore peace in the area. The same day, the
government rejected the offer stating that it would neither
accept the MNDAA nor its participation in the nationwide
ceasefire negotiations [→ Myanmar (opposition)].
nwu
MYANMAR (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1962
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
opposition vs. government
system/ideology, national power
The conflict over the orientation of the political system and
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