ConflictBarometer_2015

CONFLICT ISSUES
INTERNATIONAL POWER
In 2015, 65 of all 75 interstate conflicts revolved around
international power and/or territory. Ten of those conflicts
reached the level of a violent crisis and were distributed
across the Middle East and Maghreb (5), Asia and Oceania
(3), Europe (1), and Sub-Saharan Africa (1). Nine of these
cases related to territory and six of them to the struggle for
international power. After the de-escalation of the limited
war between Pakistan and India, no highly violent interstate
conflict was observed in 2015. The remaining 55 conflicts
were of low intensity, divided into 29 non-violent crises and
26 disputes.
Conflicts over territory accounted for a total of 46, with 14 of
the disputed territories being located in Asia, eleven in the
Americas, nine in Europe, and five each in Sub-Saharan Africa
and in the Middle East and Maghreb. A total of 16 cases saw
the combination of both territorial issues and international
power struggles. Just over half of them were fought in Asia
and Oceania. Apart from the eight violent territorial conflicts,
another 18 cases saw a threat to use force or the imposition
of sanctions, defining the level of a non-violent crisis. A total
of 19 territorial conflicts were conducted as disputes.
International power struggles, i.e. conflicts over changes in
the power structure of the international system or one of its
regional subsystems, totaled 35. About one third of them was
located each in Europe (11) and Asia and Oceania (11), while
nine of them were located in the Middle East and Maghreb,
two in the Americas, and two in Sub-Saharan Africa. With the
exception of one new conflict between Russia and Turkey
that erupted in November over the Turkish downing of a Russian
fighter jet, international power conflicts saw the use of
violence only in cases that also involved territorial issues (5)
[→ Turkey Russia]. Most international power conflicts were
conducted at the level of a non-violent crisis (21), compared
to a number of eight conflicts remaining at dispute level.
In Europe, all interstate conflicts were conducted without the
use of force. Only in the intercontinental conflict between
Western powers and Russia, actors sought to transform the
international system [→ USA, EU et al. Russia]. The majority
(11/17) of European interstate conflicts revolved around
international power. Notably eight out of 17 European interstate
conflicts were associated with domestic issues of
national minorities, most noteworthy in the context of the violent
crisis in the Caucasus [→Armenia Azerbaijan]. Minority
issues were emphasized especially by Russia and Hungary
in conflicts with their neighboring countries [→ Hungary
Romania, Slovakia, Ukraine (Hungarian minorities); Russia
Ukraine; Russia Estonia; Russia Lithuania].
Fourteen of the 21 interstate conflicts in Asia and Oceania
revolved around territory and eleven over international
power. All three observed violent crises between states revolved
around international power and territory, but two also
involved the issues of system/ideology or water [→ North
Korea South Korea; Pakistan India]. In the territorial
conflicts of North East Asia, history conceptions remained a
prominent issue, although tensions eased over conciliatory
steps taken by all sides. Japan and South Korea reached a
major agreement on the ''comfort women' issue, while Japan
and the People's Republic of China made progress towards
reconciliation [→ Japan South Korea; Japan China (East
China Sea)].
None of the 13 American interstate conflicts over international
power and/or territory were conducted violently, but a
total of seven cases saw threats of violence. Both the United
Kingdom and Chile were involved in a dispute over Antarctic
territory [→ United Kingdom Chile (Antarctica)]. Seven interstate
conflicts focused on territory as the sole contended
issue and, in four conflicts, states also sought control of resources.
A new conflict emerged in 2015 between Venezuela
and Guyana over maritime possessions and the Guayana Esquiba
territory [→ Venezuela Guyana].
The Middle East and Maghreb showed the highest ratio of
violent interstate conflicts when compared to non-violent
conflicts (4/12). The region was the center of three intercontinental
conflicts revolving around power and/or system/ideology
[→ Iran USA; Iran USA, EU (nuclear program);
Syria USA]. Two disputes in the Middle East and Maghreb
concentrated solely on territory and one on international
power [→ Iran UAE; Egypt Sudan (border); Turkey Iraq].
Sub-Saharan Africa saw the lowest number of territorial
and/or international power conflicts with a total of six. In
the Great Lakes region, two non-violent crises over regional
power also involved territorial claims [→ Burundi Rwanda;
DR Congo Rwanda]. Sub-Saharan Africa's only violent interstate
conflict was fought over the oil-rich Abyei area [→
Sudan South Sudan]. The only interstate conflicts over
international power and/or territory were disputes over territory
[→ Equatorial Guinea Gabon (Mbanié, Cocotier, Conga
islands); Ethiopia Eritrea].
In 2015, a total of eleven conflicts between states from
different continents were observed, all of them non-violent.
Among them were six international power conflicts and three
territorial conflicts. While among the latter, only the conflict
between Argentina and the UK over the Falkland Islands involved
threats of violence, all except one of the international
power conflicts remained on crisis level. The US was a party
to all five non-violent, international power crises and also to
the territorial and resource dispute in the Arctic [→ Russia
Norway et al. (Arctic)]. Iran, Russia, and the EU were each
involved in two intercontinental conflicts. Three intercontinental
conflicts involved more than two parties [→ Russia
Norway et al. (Arctic); Iran USA, EU (nuclear program); USA,
EU et al. Russia]. All three remained non-violent, as did six
of the seven regional multilateral conflicts, excepting only
the violent border crisis in the Central Asian Fergana Valley,
which involved also non-state actors [→ Uzbekistan Tajikistan
Kyrgyzstan (border communities / Fergana Valley)].
The conflicts over the nuclear programs of Iran and North
Korea, both involving US-led state coalitions, continued as
non-violent crises [→ Iran USA, EU (nuclear program); North
Korea USA, South Korea, Japan]. While the Iranian case saw
a considerable ease of tensions with the final nuclear agreement
reached by the P5+1/E3+3 group on July 14, the North
Korean case saw renewed nuclear threats by the Democratic
People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and a partial extension
of sanctions. On December 10, DPRK leader Kim Jong-un
proclaimed the country's readiness to detonate a hydrogen
bomb.
The countries most frequently engaged in interstate conflict
in 2015 were the US (12), Russia (9), Turkey (6), Iran (5), Japan
(5), and the PRC (5). Accounting for multiple dyads within
multilateral conflicts, the countries with the highest number
of conflictive bilateral relationships were Russia (21), the
US (12), Iran and the PRC (8), and Malaysia (7), with the EU
member states counted as a single block.
As a supranational organization, the EU engaged in two conflicts
as direct party, imposing collective sanctions [→ USA,
EU et al. Russia; Iran USA, EU (nuclear program)]. Among
EU member states, the UK (3), Hungary (3), and Greece (2)
had the most conflictive bilateral relationships, with conflicts
continuing between the UK and Spain, Slovenia and Croatia,
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