ConflictBarometer_2015

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CONFLICT ISSUES INTERSTATE CONFLICTS IN 2015 Singapore Fiji Tonga Myanmar Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Cambodia Philippines New Zealand Nepal Timor-Leste Vietnam Moldova Brunei Georgia Bhutan Slovakia ROC Australia PRC Japan Switzerland Hungary Romania ROK Ukraine India Afghanistan DPRK Croatia Denmark Russia Estonia Haiti Pakistan Slovenia Norway Dominican Republic Montenegro EU Latvia USA Canada Iceland Belarus Belize Cuba Kazakhstan Poland Guyana Iran Uzbekistan Mexico Azerbaijan Venezuela Syria Kyrgyzstan Guatemala Colombia Israel UAE Turkmenistan Tajikistan Nicaragua Turkey Armenia Lebanon Iraq Costa Rica Nigeria Cyprus Cameroon Greece DR Congo France FYROM Rwanda Peru Bolivia Equatorial Guinea Burundi Chile Gabon Ethiopia UK Argentina Eritrea Egypt Spain Sudan South Sudan INTENSITY 5 WAR 4 LIMITED WAR _____VI_O_L_E_N_T_________ 3 _ V _ I OL _ _ E _ N _ T __ C _ RI _ S _ I _ S ____ NON-VIOLENT 2 NON-VIOLENT CRISIS 1 DISPUTE This network shows all conflictive bilateral relationships monitored in 2015. Node size is determined by the number of bilateral conflicts the state was involved in. Edges are sized according to the number of conflict issues and coloured by conflict intensity. The layout is force determined and independent components were placed adjacent to their regional affiliates. The EU is treated as an independent actor. 30
CONFLICT ISSUES as well as Hungary and its neighbors Romania and Slovakia [→ Spain United Kingdom (Gibraltar); Slovenia Croatia (border); Hungary Romania, Slovakia, Ukraine (Hungarian minorities)]. (jfr, ceb, lmp) SYSTEM/IDEOLOGY The item system/ideology was assigned to a conflict if a conflict actor aspired a change to the ideological, religious, socioeconomic, or judicial orientation of the political system or a change to the regime type itself. In total, 155 of the 409 conflicts in 2015 involved the item system/ideology, which made it the most common conflict issue out of the ten conflict items this year. While three conflicts in Mexico, Panama, and Yemen ended in 2015, Serbia saw the start of a conflict between Kosovar opposition parties and the government over the orientation of the political system and subnational predominance [→ Mexico (EPR / Guerrero); Panama (opposition); Yemen (opposition); Serbia (Kosovo / opposition)]. One third of all system/ideology conflicts changed their intensity in 2015, while two thirds continued at the same level of violence. Of the 28 cases of escalation, 23 turned violent. The former violent crises in Israel and the Philippines both reached a highly violent level [→ Israel (Hezbollah); Philippines (MILF)]. At the same time, 27 conflicts de-escalated. A total of 17 conflicts turned non-violent, while two wars de-escalated by one and two levels respectively [→ Yemen (AQAP, Ansar al Sharia); Israel (Hamas et al. / Palestinian Territories)]. In 39 cases, system/ideology was the sole item. In 98 cases it was combined with one, 17 times with two, and one time with three additional conflict items. In 63 cases, conflict actors aspiring a change to the political system also sought national power, while natural resources were the additional claim in 24 cases. This was followed by subnational predominance (15), autonomy and secession (10), international power (9), territory (2), and the residual category other (2). More than 60 percent of the system/ideology conflicts saw the use of violence (99). Nine extended to the level of a war, which means almost half of the 19 wars in 2015 revolved around system/ideology. Six out of 24 limited wars dealt with this item and 84 cases (out of 178) reached the level of a violent crisis. Furthermore, 31 non-violent crises and 25 disputes were counted. About half of the intrastate conflicts worldwide included the item system ideology (134/280), while nine out of the 74 interstate conflicts had this item. Only the interstate conflict over territory, the orientation of the political system, and international power between North and South Korea reached a violent level [→ North Korea South Korea], while intrastate conflicts were fought on a highly violent level (15). While in Europe, Asia and Oceania, and in the Middle East and Maghreb system/ideology was the most frequent conflict item, it ranked second in the Americas and fourth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Most often it appeared in the Middle East and Maghreb (47/71) and Asia and Oceania (47/126). In total, 21 conflicts over the orientation of the political system were observed in the Americas (21/53) and 20, respectively, in Sub-Saharan Africa (20/97) and Europe (20/62). The lowest share of violent system/ideology conflicts were observed in Europe, as half of the conflicts were conducted on a violent level (10/20). The region saw nine violent crises as well as one full-scale war in the Ukraine over the orientation of the political system, secession, and resources [→ Ukraine (Donbas)]. In Sub-Saharan Africa, 15 out of 20 conflicts over system/ideology were violent, including three full-scale intrastate wars and one limited intrastate war. The Americas showed the highest share of violent conflicts over system/ideology, as 17 out of 21 conflicts were violent. However, among the violent conflicts over the orientation of the political system, there was no war and only one limited war could be observed [→ Colombia (FARC)]. Two thirds of the system/ideology conflicts in Asia and Oceania were violent (29/47), including one intrastate limited war in the Philippines and one war in Pakistan [→ Philippines (MILF); Pakistan (Islamist militant groups)]. In the Middle East and Maghreb, about 60 percent of the system/ideology conflicts were violent (28/47). Among these, four wars and three limited wars were counted. (maw) NATIONAL POWER In 2015, 93 out of 409 political conflicts worldwide revolved around the item national power, meaning the aim to govern a state. It was therefore the second most common conflict issue following system/ideology. One new conflict erupted over national power in the Republic of Congo between opposition groups and President Denis Sassou Nguesso's Congolese Party of Labour (PCT) [→ Republic of Congo (opposition)]. In reaction to Nguesso's attempt to change the constitution, thereby enabling himself to run for president for a third time, thousands of protesters demanded his removal. In contrast, the national power conflict in Madagascar ended when former president Marc Ravalomanana accepted the legitimacy of the ruling government and the presidency. Subsequently, the house arrest he had lived under since his return to Madagascar in October 2014 was lifted. His return and legal status had been one major issue of the national reconciliation efforts since his ouster in early 2009. The majority of national power conflicts were conducted at a violent level (57/93), comprising eleven highly violent conflicts. Eight out of 19 wars were fought over national power. This made national power the second most violent conflict item after system/ideology in 2015. With the exception of the conflict revolving around national power between Islamist groups and the government in Pakistan, all wars over central government control were observed in the Middle East and Maghreb (4) and Sub-Saharan Africa (3). In Sub-Saharan Africa, national power was the most frequent conflict item (36/97). The war between Anti-Balaka and ex- Séléka groups saw several attempts to negotiate in the first half of the year, while violence re-escalated in September [→ Central African Republic (Anti-Balaka ex-Séléka)]. In Somalia, al-Shabaab continued to engage in heavy fighting with government and AMISOM forces while carrying out several attacks on Kenyan ground [→ Somalia (al-Shabaab)]. In South Sudan, the war between the SPLM/A-in-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) led by former vice president Riek Machar and the government of President Salva Kiir continued [→ South Sudan (SPLM/A-in-Opposition)]. The SPLM/A-IO continued to advocate a federalist reform, arguing this would help to overcome ethnic differences. Notably, the conflict increasingly concerned the control of oilfields. In the Middle East and Maghreb, national power was the second most frequent conflict item after system/ideology (22/71). In terms of civilian fatalities, 2015 was the most fatal year in the war between the Taliban and the Afghan government since 2002, with at least 2,730 civilians killed as of October 31 [→ Afghanistan (Taliban et al.)]. In 2015, numerous former Taliban fighters joined the so-called Islamic State [→ Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. Furthermore, the war in Libya 31
Page 1 and 2: 2015 disputes non-violent crises vi
Page 3 and 4: CONFLICT BAROMETER I 2015 Analyzed
Page 5 and 6: AUTHORS AND EDITORIAL BOARD EUROPE
Page 7 and 8: Methodology
Page 9 and 10: In addition to the three constituti
Page 11 and 12: Global Conflict Panorama
Page 13 and 14: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2015 (SUBNATIO
Page 15 and 16: GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT GLOBAL CONFLICT
Page 17 and 18: GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA ANALYSIS I
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Page 21 and 22: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION NEG
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Page 31: CONFLICT ISSUES INTERNATIONAL POWER
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Page 39 and 40: VIOLENT SUBNATIONAL PREDOMINANCE CO
Page 41 and 42: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS IN 2015
Page 43 and 44: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN EUROPE IN 2015
Page 45 and 46: EUROPE they envisaged the region's
Page 47 and 48: EUROPE Name of conflict 1 Conflict
Page 49 and 50: EUROPE Lukashenka, on the other, co
Page 51 and 52: EUROPE GREECE (SOCIAL PROTESTS, LEF
Page 53 and 54: EUROPE Bridge in Moscow. Subsequent
Page 55 and 56: EUROPE MP Donika Kadaj-Bujupi was a
Page 57 and 58: EUROPE of movement and speech, paym
Page 59 and 60: EUROPE In mid-July, the government
Page 61 and 62: Sub-Saharan Africa
Page 63 and 64: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Counting 97, the
Page 65 and 66: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Overview: Confli
Page 67 and 68: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Name of conflict
Page 69 and 70: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Thousands of peo
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA recurring attack
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NIGERIA, CAMEROON, CHAD, NIGER (BOK
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA the constitution
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Farah Aden, form
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA March 8. On Marc
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA claimed to have
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA killed 16 people
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to sign a compre
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Renewal had been
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE AMERICAS I
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THE AMERICAS In various countries,
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THE AMERICAS Name of conflict 1 Con
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THE AMERICAS CHILE (MAPUCHE / ARAUC
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THE AMERICAS incident an ''act of d
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THE AMERICAS November 3, the air fo
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THE AMERICAS department, who had ca
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THE AMERICAS fices were carried out
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THE AMERICAS Zetas, in San Pedro Ga
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THE AMERICAS gion of the Northern A
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THE AMERICAS gion. In a military op
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THE AMERICAS Maduro accused paramil
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN ASIA AND OCEAN
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ASIA AND OCEANIA central government
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Minister Sheikh Ha
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ASIA AND OCEANIA CHINA (SOCIOECONOM
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Committees in Sers
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ASIA AND OCEANIA South China Sea in
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ASIA AND OCEANIA United Liberation
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ASIA AND OCEANIA with the governmen
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ASIA AND OCEANIA until 01/09/16. Th
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ASIA AND OCEANIA nation. The ROC go
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Additionally, Thol
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ASIA AND OCEANIA national power bet
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Group sent a speec
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PAKISTAN (ISLAMIST MILITANT GROUPS)
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Public School in P
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ASIA AND OCEANIA over the mine's re
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ASIA AND OCEANIA use of automatic g
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ASIA AND OCEANIA The conflict betwe
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAS
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB (Sunni mili
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Name of con
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB AFGHANISTAN
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ALGERIA (MA
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB On November
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB state betwe
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB and the int
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB obstruct th
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Syria. In t
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB In February
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB September,
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Army (LNA),
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July - September October - December
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB of whom was
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB flights to
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Al-Houthi m
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YEMEN, SAUDI ARABIA (AL-HOUTHI) Jan
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IMPRINT ADVISORY BOARD Dr. Nadine A
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Heidelberg Institute for Internatio
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ConflictBarometer_2015

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