ConflictBarometer_2015

MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB
In 2015, a total of 71 conflicts was observed in the Middle East and Maghreb, which marks a decrease by two compared
to the last year. With ten highly violent conflicts, the region accounted for almost a quarter of all highly violent conflicts
worldwide, while the region's six wars make up nearly a third of all wars. Compared to last year, the share of full-scale
wars dropped due to a methodological optimization: The conflict interactions directly related to the so-called Islamic State
(IS) were extracted from the conflicts Syria (opposition), Syria (inter-opposition violence), Syria (NC, Islamist groups KSC /
Kurdish regions), Iraq (IS et al.), Afghanistan (Taliban et al.), Algeria (AQIM et al.), Egypt (Islamist groups / Sinai Peninsula), Libya
(opposition groups), Tunisia (AQIM et al.), Yemen (AQAP - al-Houthi rebels) into one transnational conflict [→ Syria, Iraq et al.
(IS)]. System/ideology continued to be the conflict parties' most pursued item, with nearly two thirds of all conflicts focusing
around it. In contrast, conflicts revolving around the items territory and international power tended to be less violent.
Syria remained the country with the highest fatalities in all its conflicts combined. The war between the government
of President Bashar al-Assad and various opposition groups was marked by a shift of momentum [→ Syria (opposition)].
While opposition groups were able to capture the complete Idlib Governorate in spring, there was a deadlock throughout
the summer. With the start of the Russian intervention on September 30, pro-government forces made significant gains,
especially in Aleppo and Homs Governorate. The violence between the opposition groups continued, especially Jabhat
al-Nusra was involved in inter-opposition fighting [→ Syria (inter-opposition violence)]. The opposition conflict had also
impact on two interstate conflicts, due to cross-border shelling [→ Syria Israel; Syria Turkey]. The conflict with the major
impact on the conflict landscape in the Middle East and Maghreb was the conflict with the so-called Islamic State (IS) [→
Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. Within its core in Syria and Iraq IS made significant territorial gains in the first half of the year capturing
Ramadi, al-Anbar Governorate, Iraq and the ancient city Palmyra, Homs Governorate, Syria. But throughout the second half
of the year losing territory to Kurdish groups in northern Syria and northern Iraq, as well as against the Iraqi army, supported
by Shia militias, in central Iraq and al-Anbar. A US-led coalition targeted IS with airstrikes in both countries. In Iraq all other
conflicts were non-violent, due to the focus on IS. Beside Syria and Iraq IS also intensified its operations in other countries
throughout the region like Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Turkey, or Yemen.
Yemen continued to be one of the countries in the region most affected by highly violent conflicts. However, the structure of
the conflicts in the country saw a significant change in 2015. Saudi Arabia, which until then supported the Yemeni government
in its conflict with the al-Houthis, started a large military operation together with an Arab coalition after President Hadi had
fled the country in March. Several other groups engaged in ongoing conflicts with the government joined forces loyal to
President Hadi in their fight against the al-Houthi militants and their allies [→ Yemen (Marib tribes); Yemen (SMM / South
Yemen)]. Among the latter were most notably members of the Special Security Forces and others loyal to former president
Saleh. Militants from AQAP and Ansar al Sharia continued to fight both the government and al-Houthi forces, while IS
especially targeted Shia mosques frequented by al-Houthi fighters.
The war in Afghanistan between the Taliban and various other militant groups, on one side, and the NATO-led Resolute
Support Mission (RSM) and US forces, on the other, continued. RSM was launched on January 1 as the ISAF mission formally
ended on 31/12/14. In terms of civilian fatalities, 2015 was the most fatal year in Afghanistan since the beginning of the ISAF
mission in 2002 with at least 3,545 dead civilians by December 31. Another significant development was the emergence of
IS in Afghanistan. Throughout the year, IS engaged in fighting with the Afghan National Army, NATO forces, and the Taliban
mostly in Farah and Nangarhar provinces. The IS militants often proved to be former Taliban fighters and tried to establish
several regional strongholds, but were regularly pushed back by the Taliban.
In Turkey, the conflict between the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the government escalated to a war. On July 22, PKK
militants killed two soldiers in Ceylanpinar, Sanliurfa province. From July 24 onwards, the Turkish Armed Forces carried out
airstrikes and ground operations against PKK targets in the southeast, especially in Diyarbakir in the eponymous province.
By the end of the year, at least 2,057 were killed and over 100,000 internally displaced as a result of the fighting between
PKK and the government. The conflict was exacerbated by several IS attacks in Turkey, most notably the Ankara bombings on
October 10 when IS suicide bombers killed at least 102 civilians and wounded more than 400. In late August, Turkey actively
joined the US-led anti-IS coalition and started to carry out airstrikes against IS targets in Syria.
In Israel, two conflicts were carried out regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state with major conflict action located
in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, respectively [→ Israel (Hamas et al. / Palestinian territories); Israel (PNA / Palestinian
territories)]. The conflict between Hamas, PRC, PIJ, and others against the government focused on the Gaza Strip and
de-escalated from a war to a violent crisis [→ Israel (Hamas et al. / Palestinian territories)]. The de-escalation followed the
ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas reached on 08/26/14 and led to a significant decline in fatality numbers.
Violent incidents in the West Bank in 2015 mostly concerned rockets fired from the Strip towards Israel and prompting
Israeli airstrikes in return. Violence was also carried out by both sides during demonstrations in the proximity of the border
fence between the Palestinian territories and Israel. In the West Bank, conflict conduct mostly focused on the violent crisis
between the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) and the government [→ Israel (PNA / Palestinian territories)]. While the
PNA accepted the Jurisdiction of ICC in January, the remainder of the year was marked by stabbing attacks carried out by
Palestinian civilians against Israeli civilians and security personnel. In July, Israeli settlers killed three Palestinians in an arson
attack in the village of Duma. Clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces were especially frequent around the
Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif. Furthermore, the conflicts between Hamas and Salafi groups in the Gaza Strip escalated to a
violent crisis, while the conflict between Israel and Shiite militia Hezbollah escalated to a limited war.
In Lebanon, a limited war was conducted between Sunni militant groups, most notably al-Qaida affiliate al-Nusra Front, on
the one hand, and the government and Shiite militia Hezbollah on the other [→ Lebanon (Sunni militant groups)]. The conflict
was heavily affected by the Syrian civil war and the conflict with IS and mainly took place around the cities of Arsal, Baalbek,
and Ras Baalbek in Beqaa governorate, where IS tried to establish a bridgehead.
In Egypt, the conflict between Ajnad al-Misr and other militant Islamist groups against the government constituted a limited
war and was mainly conducted on the Sinai Peninsula [→ Egypt (Islamist groups / Sinai Peninsula]. Here, as in the case of
Lebanon, an existing conflict involving Islamist militants was heavily influenced by the conflict regarding IS [→ Lebanon
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