ConflictBarometer_2015

CONFLICT ISSUES
between the House of Representatives and its internationally
recognized government based in Tobruk and al-Bayda, on the
one hand, and the Tripoli-based General National Congress,
on the other, continued [→ Libya (opposition)]. The Syrian
opposition conflict saw renewed attempts by the international
community to put an end to the violence that claimed
more than 50,000 fatalities in 2015 alone [→ Syria (opposition)].
On December 18, the UNSC unanimously adopted
Resolution 2254 outlining a road map for a ceasefire and
a peace process. The war between the al-Houthi militants,
on the one hand, and the government of Yemen as well
as a Saudi-led military coalition, on the other, transformed
the entire conflict landscape in the Yemen [→ Yemen, Saudi
Arabia (al-Houthi)]. Numerous actors previously fighting the
government of Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi
turned against the al-Houthis.
In other regions, national power played only a minor role
in comparison to other items. In Europe, eleven out of 62
conflicts revolved around central government control, in the
Americas five out of 53 conflicts, and in Asia and Oceania 19
out of 126.
Besides being the two most common conflict issues 2015, the
combination of claims of national power and seeking change
to the political system was more frequent than any other
combination of conflict items. In 63 cases, actors sought
national power and a change to the political system at the
same time. In five cases, actors also claimed control of natural
resources. While four out of the five conflicts were located
in Sub-Saharan Africa, one took place in Asia and Oceania [→
Cambodia (opposition)]. (tk)
SECESSION
The year 2015 saw 48 conflicts over secession, with four
highly violent, 21 low-violent and 23 non-violent cases.
Numbering 19, most of the secession conflicts took place in
Asia and Oceania, followed by Europe with 15 cases. Asia and
Oceania also showed the highest figure of violent secession
conflicts, numbering 13. While in the Americas no violent
conflict over secession was observed, the Middle East and
Maghreb wittnessed five and Sub-Saharan Africa three. In 19
cases secession conflicts were combined with at least one
more conflict issue. Most commonly, secession was combined
with system/ideology or natural resources (10).
Four of the 15 European conflicts over secession were fought
violently in 2015, with the region's only war being observed
in Ukraine. The war over the status of the Donbas region between
several militant anti-government groups, supported by
Russia, and the Ukrainian government, supported by Western
countries, left at least 4,300 people dead, tens of thousands
injured, and at least 985,000 people displaced by the end of
the year [→ Ukraine (Donbas)].
In Russia's Northern Caucasus region, the conflict over secession
and system/ideology between Islamist militant groups
fighting under the umbrella of the Caucasian Emirate (CE),
on the one hand, and the central as well as regional governments,
on the other, de-escalated to the level of a violent
crisis [→ Russia (Islamist militants / Northern Caucasus)]. Although
the number of CE attacks significantly decreased,
over 200 people were killed in the conflict. The violent
crisis over the status of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in Azerbaijan
continued [→ Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh)]. The
regional government of Nagorno-Karabakh held parliamentary
elections, which, however, were not recognized by the
government, the EU, NATO, and the OSCE. The conflict over
the secession of Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom
saw renewed violent clashes in Belfast between Loyalists
and the police [→ United Kingdom (Nationalists / Northern
Ireland)].
Non-violent crises over secession could be observed in
Cyprus, Georgia, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. Notably
Russian Armed Forces conducted joint military exercises in
the Georgian regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia [→ Georgia
(Abkhazia); Georgia (South Ossetia)]. Secession disputes in
Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, Serbia, and Spain continued
on the same level. Two of the 15 secession conflicts in
Europe revolved around the issue of the orientation of the
political system, while three cases included claims for natural
resources.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, eight conflicts were fought over a
territory's secession from a state. Nigeria and Senegal both
saw the escalation of conflicts to a violent level. In Nigeria,
the Igbo-based Movement for the Actualization of the
Sovereign State of Biafra demanded an independent state
of Biafra in the oil-rich Niger delta region since 1967 [→
Nigeria (MASSOB / Biafra)]. Since 1982, the Diola-based
Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance demanded
independence for Senegal's Casamance region [→ Senegal
(MFDC / Casamance)]. The Oromo Liberation Front continued
its violent struggle for the secession of the Oromiya region
in Ethiopia [→ Ethiopia (OLF / Oromiya)].
The two conflicts over the secession of the Kenyan coast and
the Tanzanian island of Zanzibar de-escalated to a non-violent
level. Likewise, the conflict over the status of Angola's oil-rich
enclave Cabinda de-escalated to a non-violent crisis despite
the Front for Liberation of the Enclave Cabinda threatening
to return to violent means after accusing the government of
murdering one of its leaders [→ Angola (FLEC / Cabinda)].
Furthermore, no settlements were reached in the disputes
between the self-declared government of Somaliland and
the government of Somalia as well as in the Cameroon's
Bakassi region [→ Somalia (Somaliland); Cameroon (militants
/ Bakassi)]. Only two conflicts saw the combination with other
items: While the Uamsho movement in Tanzania's Zanzibar
island demanded the change of the political system, in Angola,
the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda
sought the control of oil.
Asia and Oceania witnessed 19 conflicts over secession, with
13 being fought on a violent level. While the total number of
violent conflicts remained constant, two conflicts escalated
to a violent level and two others turned non-violent [→ India
(Sikhs); Philippines (MNLF)]; India (NLFT factions, ATTF /
Tripura); Malaysia (Sulu Sultanate Supporters / Lahad Datu
District)]. In two cases, secession conflicts were fought on a
highly violent level. The conflict between BIFM and BIFF, on
the one hand, and MILF and the government of the Philippines,
on the other, escalated from a limited war to a war [→
Philippines (BIFM, BIFF MILF, government].
In Pakistan, Baloch nationalists and the government intensified
their fighting to the level of a limited war [→ Pakistan
(Baloch nationalists / Balochistan)]. The secession conflict
between Uyghurs and the government de-escalated from a
limited war to a violent crisis [→ China (Uyghurs / Xinjiang)].
Although the number of fatalities decreased in comparison
to the previous year, violence was observed almost every
month. In addition, the secession conflict in the Philippines
between the MNLF and the government, lasting since 1969,
turned violent in 2015 [→ Philippines (MNLF)]. In general,
around half of the secession conflicts were combined with
other strategic goals such as the orientation of the political
system, resources, and subnational predominance.
All five conflicts over secession in the Middle East and
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