ConflictBarometer_2015

MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB
Lebanon. On January 1, the army attacked militant positions
to prevent them from advancing towards Arsal. On January
10, al-Nusra carried out a twin suicide bombing in Jabal
Mohsen, a mostly Alawite neighborhood of Tripoli, killing
nine people and wounding up to 40. In the following days,
the army carried out raids in Arsal, the capital Beirut, as
well as Tripoli and arrested at least four people allegedly
involved in the bombings. On January 23, militants and
army troops clashed near Ras Baalbek. Eight soldiers and at
least 18 militants died during the fights, in which the army
used heavy artillery and helicopter gunships to oust militant
positions. In the beginning of May, Hezbollah started a military
offensive together with the Syrian army against al-Nusra
in the Syrian Qalamoun mountains. On May 5, Hezbollah
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah threatened to attack al-
Nusra in the Arsal area, claiming that the LAF was unable to
address the threat. On June 2, al-Nusra attacked a Hezbollah
checkpoint near Arsal and killed three Hezbollah fighters. The
next day, Hezbollah captured 15 militant's positions around
Arsal. At least eleven al-Nusra militants were killed in the
fighting. On June 5, Nasrallah stated that Hezbollah had no
intention to enter the mostly Sunni-inhabited Arsal. Military
officials had previously warned Hezbollah of entering Arsal
and thereby provoking open confrontation with the LAF. On
July 30, the LAF struck militant strongholds in the outskirts of
al-Qaa, Beqaa Governorate, with heavy artillery. Dozens were
reportedly killed and wounded by the army's shelling. The
army fired missiles at Arsal on October 19, targeting militants
who had gathered there. At least eight people were killed and
ten wounded, although it was not clear whether the casualties
were civilians or militants. After months of negotiations
brokered by Qatar, al-Nusra released 16 Lebanese security
personnel as part of a prisoner exchange deal on December
1. The handover took place outside Arsal; Lebanese authorities
released 13 prisoners in return. The day after, the army
heavily shelled al-Nusra positions near Arsal, injuring several
militants. On December 5, a suspected Islamist militant blew
himself up during an army raid in the town of Deir Ammar
close to Tripoli. He killed two civilians and wounded at
least ten others, including four security personnel. LAF and
Hezbollah killed at least nine al-Nusra militants, among them
senior commander Abu Firas al-Jebbeh, in a joint operation
near Arsal on December 9. ema, twt
in the area of the southern towns of Awbari, Wadi al-Hayat
district, and neighboring Sabha, located in the eponymous
district. In confrontations, heavy weapons such as artillery
and mortars were employed by armed tribal forces. For
instance, Tibu forces stated to have attacked a Tuareg forces'
camp in Awbari, killing around ten people on March 20,
including one commander. Two days of confrontations reportedly
left more than 25 dead on both sides. Between
May 18 and 19, fighting between the two groups in Awbari
resulted in the deaths of 17 and the injuries of at least 16
people.
Clashes between Tibu and Tuareg erupted on July 13 near
the airport of the town of Sabha and resumed the next
day after a short-term ceasefire. At least 40 people were
killed and hundreds of families displaced before another
truce was agreed upon on July 25. However, skirmishes
continued and further negotiation attempts in September
were accompanied by ceasefire violations. On December 23,
Tibu and Tuareg representatives signed a peace agreement
in Doha, Qatar. Nevertheless, clashes including rocket fire
were reported the following night in Awbari, but without
resulting in people killed or wounded. Reportedly, clashes
in July between Tibu and the Qaddadfa and Awlad Suleiman
tribes in Sabha left several people dead or injured.
In the area of the town of Kufra, located in the eponymous
southeastern district, armed Tibu repeatedly clashed with
members of the Arab Zuwayya tribe. For example, two
students belonging to the Zuwayya tribe were killed in a
gunfight with Tibu students at the University of Kufra on
May 6. The following two days, Tibu neighborhoods were
reportedly shelled with mortar fire and two Tibus were shot
dead. On May 11, Tibus and Zuways agreed on a ceasefire.
Fighting between July 25 and August 6 resulted in the deaths
of about 50 people and included the use of mortar and
heavy artillery by both Tibu and Zuwayya fighters. The two
groups clashed again on September 20, when Tibu fighters
and alleged Sudanese mercenaries arriving in a convoy of
at least 20 vehicles attacked Zuwayya forces. Around 30
attackers and eight Zuways were killed. sul
LIBYA (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 5 | Change: | Start: 2011
LIBYA (INTER-TRIBAL)
Intensity: 4 | Change: | Start: 2012
Conflict parties: Tibu vs. Awlad Suleiman tribe
vs. Qaddadfa tribe vs. Tuareg vs.
Zuwayya
Conflict items:
subnational predominance, resources
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Operation Dignity forces, HoR, LNA,
PFG vs. Libya Dawn alliance, ARSC,
GNC, BRSC, DMSC
system/ideology, national power
The limited war over subnational predominance and resources
between tribes in southern Libya continued. Among
other issues, trafficking routes for illicit goods as well as fuel
were contested.
In the course of the year, Tuareg and Tibu periodically clashed
The conflict over national power and the orientation of
the political system between the House of Representatives
(HoR) and its internationally recognized government, their
Libya National Army (LNA) interlinked with the Operation Dignity
coalition, and loyal militias and loosely affiliated forces,
on the one hand, and the General National Congress (GNC),
supported by the Libya Dawn alliance, as well as Islamist
groups based in Ajdabiya, Benghazi, and Derna, on the other,
continued at war level. Whereas the GNC-backing Tripoli and
Misrata militias exerted control of the capital Tripoli, HoR
176